The year started with hope. As 2022 arrived, America and most countries (China excepted) were emerging from two years of difficult lockdowns and Covid. The good news was that a flood of money from the U.S. government had buoyed the stock market and I’ve long observed that in a rising equities market, LSA and SP kit aircraft sell well.
No one thinks this is because anyone sells stock to buy a Light-Sport Aircraft. Rather, it’s something economists call the “wealth effect,” where rising asset values give stockholders confidence that good times are here and they can buy an airplane to have fun.
Then… Russia invaded Ukraine and global markets trembled.
Despite a year of war, of plunging stock markets and sky-high energy prices, of protests and riots in multiple countries, plus on-going supply chain strains and lingering Covid fears, the light aircraft nonetheless grew by a very healthy 18%, after rising 10% in 2021.
LSA and Sport Pilot Kits Offer Aircraft Your Way: Factory-Built or Kit-Built
Barely after we rang in the new year, here’s a review of 2021 market shares and info regarding the state of the light, recreational aircraft industry. After a surprisingly strong 2020 despite Covid, 2021 returned to Earth a bit but with some shifting between categories. This year the contrast that stood out was between Factory-Built and Kit-Built.
In 2020, perhaps because builders were locked down at home and completed more projects, kit registrations blew the doors off factory-built. For 2021, the ratio equalized again with kits narrowly edging out factory-built (nearby chart).
Note that for this reporting, datastician Steve Beste said, “We define kit-built as aircraft registered as Experimental Amateur Built. Factory-built are everything else, including SLSA, ELSA, Exhibition, Primary, and Standard.” To understand how Steve solves the FAA database mysteries, check this PDF.
How Healthy Is the Market?
Generally speaking, the leaders from 2019 and 2020 remain in similar positions for 2021 — the second year everyone endured the virus pandemic.
Ending 2021 — Beginning 2022… What’s Behind and What’s Ahead?
With the DeLand Showcase 2021 ended, we have officially wrapped up the airshow season for 2021.
In retrospect, 2021 improved on surprisingly good results for 2020. Pilots are buying and flying — great! — while producers are maintaining or growing; both are good outcomes we can celebrate.
While much of America and the world were topsy turvy over the pandemic and the sweeping mandates placed on individuals and businesses, Light-Sport Aircraft fared reasonably well. Translation: sales held roughly steady despite Covid fear and talk of FAA regulation change hanging in the air.
The Sport Pilot kit market and Part 103 ultralights had nothing short of a banner year …and all that was 2020!
In 2021, the recreational flying community experienced an ongoing positive trend, but we can happily add into the mix a successful restart to the airshow calendar, lead by our friends at Sun ‘n Fun. From spring through fall, SnF was followed by AirVenture — both stronger than many expected after 2020’s enterprise-threatening cancellations.
Trouble Ahead? 5 Problems Appear While Aircraft Sales Remain Strong. What’s Happening?
Numerous reports involve rising inflation in the last year. What’s driving this? Despite public spending at levels never seen before, inflation had seemed tame and the economy appears remarkably strong even after the last year and a half of dislocations and restrictions?
However, trillions cannot enter an economy without impact. The lion’s share of those immense sums found their way into financial assets, including stocks.
What has this to do with Light-Sport Aircraft? Over many years of ups and downs, I’ve noticed a high correlation between stock market buoyancy and airplane sales. Both are soaring right now.
Unfortunately, some dark clouds are gathering.
Insurance Rates — Do you pay an insurance bill? If you answered yes, then you know about a significant increase in your premium. Maybe you can’t find insurance for your special aircraft. Maybe you can’t even get an insurance agent to give you a quote. Is the cause for this price gloom because LSA or Sport Pilot kit aircraft are falling out of the sky?
Beyond AirVenture — Light Aviation Globally and Circumnavigating the Globe by Shark (LSA)
For a week last month, the center of the aviation universe was headquartered in Oshkosh, Wisconsin — population around 50,000 until AirVenture brings in five times that many on the biggest days.
AirVenture Oshkosh is arguably the most important aviation event in the world each year, bringing people together from all points on the compass… or, at least it usually does.
For 2021, international representation was far below the usual. I don’t have hard numbers but few of my overseas airshow friends could make this year’s event.
Internationally-Speaking
Despite the lack of international visitors EAA AirVenture Oshkosh afforded a large helping of personal contacts and conversations. Even in the age of Zoom and Skype, Facebook and Twitter, websites and YouTube channels, meeting in-person retains immense value, both personally and professionally. My article about the FAA “pivot” reported one of those fortunate meetings; same for the XE Part 103 helicopter resulting in our most-read Oshkosh 2021 article.
Better News on Proposed LSA Regulation — Clearing the Air on FAA’s Latest Information
In about one year, FAA may announce their new regulation for Light-Sport Aircraft.
This rule, sometimes called MOSAIC, proposes wide changes for the light aircraft segment, including an entirely new term: Light Personal Aircraft (LPA).
Here in early summer 2021, new information was discovered that shines additional light on what is ahead.
I am privileged to have recent information in which I have very high confidence.
While we do not know everything yet — neither does FAA itself — we are getting a clearer picture. Nonetheless, you should remember this is a proposal still in deliberation. It is not a completed regulation. We will know definitely what FAA recommends only when the NPRM (Notice of Proposed Rule Making) is released. My best guess for that is EAA AirVenture Oshkosh 2022 …about one year in the future. The final rule, after assessing all comments, is not expected until the end of 2023.
2020 Is History — How Did Light Aircraft Fare in this Year of Fear?
Everyone knows 2020 was arguably the most unusual year in anyone’s recollection. In such a time of global upheaval, how did the light aircraft industry fare?
This report took a bit more time as the effort to begin counting Part 103 ultralights altered our view of the FAA aircraft registration data. Most of you may prefer this simpler report, but the data hounds among readers can drill all the way down to the last aircraft on Tableau Public.
As always, my sincerest thanks goes to our premier datastician Steve Beste. His work is the primary resource for this report. While I deeply appreciated the work done for years by former data guy (and personal friend), Jan Fridrich, Steve’s career in databases gave him skills that few others possess. Since he’s also “one of us” — a trike owner and pilot — Steve understands what we hope to achieve better than data experts outside affordable aviation.
Kit Aircraft Are Up; New Sales Are Off — Recreational Aviation Copes with Covid
Our fastest-with-the-mostest partner tracks the health and performance of the light aircraft industry and is once again punctual. Datastician Steve Beste has proven his capabilities to collect the registration data quickly, accurately, and with an insider’s viewpoint. Steve is a trike pilot, so he is “one of us.” In his former life he was a database expert in the tech field explaining his great facility with these systems.
Here we are reporting facts for the period of April, May, and June 2020. Given the spectacular upheaval around the world, I’m happy to see the recreational aircraft industry holding its own fairly well. Reporting for the companies making larger, heavier aircraft, the General Aviation Manufacturers Association also reported sales are down. I cannot imagine anyone is surprised.
If I was reporting numbers for the restaurant, bar, hotel, airline, theater, sports, or concert industries it would be an ugly bloodbath. This report is far less glum and beaten-down than those enterprises.
FAA’s Proposed Regulation (MOSAIC) — LAMA’s Spring 2020 Update Report
In recent months many light aviation enthusiasts have been asking about progress on FAA’s proposed rewrite of the Light-Sport Aircraft regulations. Following a lengthy teleconference in 2019, the Light Aircraft Manufacturers Association is pleased to provide a further update for the agency’s work on MOSAIC, or Modernization of Special Airworthiness Certification. Here is our earlier article on this subject.
This update is one of a continuing series. As time passes and FAA progresses toward its goal — of issuing a NPRM, Notice of Proposed Rule Making — LAMA requests a teleconference or in-person visit to learn the rule writers’ latest concepts and language decisions.
This progress reports identifies new discoveries and clarifies previous statements that may now be better understood.
Some Key Messages
FAA is moving forward on the rulemaking project yet everything remains in progress while the agency gathers internal assessments. What follows is as accurate as possible at this time but changes will occur.
Latest Update on FAA’s Plan to Change Light-Sport Aircraft Regulations — July 2019
Many have asked about progress on FAA’s proposed rewrite of the Light-Sport Aircraft regulations. Following a lengthy teleconference at the end of June 2019, LAMA, the Light Aircraft Manufacturers Association, provided another update.
The update to industry covered a lot of ground but here we’ve tried to make it a quicker read.
Two key points: First, FAA is in the early stages of this rulemaking; at least minor changes are certain. FAA itself does not know all the specific details of the proposed rule at this time.
Secondly, the steps reported here come from actual rule writers but their effort has support from top FAA leadership. Driven by a Congressional mandate we know this will go forward.
LSA Is a Success Story
For 15 years Light-Sport Aircraft and their producers have proven themselves, LAMA argued. FAA concurred; the agency has often referred to the safety record as “acceptable,” reasonably high praise from regulators.