ByDanJohnson.com

CubCrafters continues to show strong market share

Winged buddy Dan Johnson and his colleague Jan Fridrich, head of LAMA Europe, just posted Jan’s exhaustive parsing of the LSA registration data and came up with some shockers. ***  Dan calls it the LSA Market Share Report. The first thing he notes is apparent stability in the marketplace: overall registration numbers for the first half of 2011 are about the same as last year, he says, so at least the industry didn’t fall off from that tough year. The pace is on track to better 2009’s 177 total registrations and 2010’s 202. *** In 2010, 48 came from Cessna, which, when subtracted from the total, gives you 154 for the whole year for the rest of the fleet. *** So, looking again at 2011’s first half of 126, subtracting Cessna’s numbers from the total of 126 yields just 72. *** Double that (144) and we could end up with even fewer registrations than 2010, (not counting Cessna) although at just 10 less it’s not an earthshaking falloff unless you want to be a worrywart and consider 2009, which had 177 total…and none from Cessna. But we won’t go there. *** As has been the trend from the beginning, just a handful — six this time — LSA companies racked up 92% of all new registrations! *** Remember, these aren’t sales on the book but previous (or future) sales, since these numbers only reflect aircraft registered from Jan. through June with FAA. For instance, several LSA might come in at one time to a dealer, who might register them all at once before selling any of them. Or vice versa: some already sold may not have been registered. Still, the reg numbers provide a pretty accurate glimpse of what’s really going on. *** And The Gang of Six?  *** Cessna: 54, for almost 43% of all registrations, on the strength of Skycatching-up in production *** CubCrafters: 20 for 17% *** Czech Aircraft Works: 16 for 13%, which includes formerly-badged PiperSports *** American Legend: 11 for 9% *** Flight Design (still #1): 10 for 7%. *** Jabiru: 5 for 4% *** That’s 116 aircraft out of the total of 126. *** Now if we throw in Aeropro (Aerotrek models) and its 4 registrations, those top 7 companies account for just over 95% of all 2011 registrations! That means of all the other 112 manufacturers, only 6 aircraft made the books.That, my friends, is a hard number to swallow for all those hardy, perservering companies who are still in the game mostly, as the numbers suggest, on a wing and a lot of prayers. *** Dan goes on to point out that eight makers have now sold more than 100 aircraft. In an economy as enduringly painful as a chronic bad tooth, that’s somewhat encouraging. *** And even though only 126 aircraft were registered since January 19th…well, 126 aircraft were registered since January 19th! In other words, the industry is not throwing in the towel, though it’s sure getting a drenching. *** Another bellweather of sorts: Cessna’s healthy production has for the first time tipped the market scales toward the U.S.: we registered more aircraft than offshore producers in 2011. *** Cessna is now 8th (13th six months ago), based on 54 Skycatchers registered. That’s like watching an insider stock chart shoot for the moon! *** And with a goodly percentage of those highly-touted initial 1000 orders still on the books, Cessna will only continue to leapfrog the rest at the top of the list for the foreseeable future, at least until purse strings not only among the merely well-off but the uber-rich loosen up, because right now, not many people in any income category are buying much of anything considered a luxury. *** Some surprising numbers, as my reader Thomas pointed out in a comment to my previous blog post: *** Five major makers, all in the top 20, narrowly missed striking out completely in registrations the first six months! *** Four of them — Tecnam, TL Ultralight (Sting), Eastman (Zodiac models) and Evektor (SportStar), failed to register a single ship. Only Remos tallied…one. It registered 32 in 2009! What’s happening here? *** Eastman is working on a comeback after several fatal crashes and a subsequent airframe redesign, but the other four produce a variety of excellent quality aircraft and enjoy good reputations. Pricing on any of their models is not by and large out of line with the rest of the market. *** Thomas goes into the shadows with this: “It’s not that there’s no demand: SportCruiser, Cessna, CubCrafters and Flight Design all registered decent numbers of aircraft. Was the owner experience of these other aircraft not so good? Support not there? Wrong features? Parts problems? Airframe failures? Or did the distributor simply bring in too much inventory, register it all at once, and then spend the last 2 years not registering any new ones while steadily selling off the inventory?” *** All are reasonable inquiries. I’m particularly drawn to his support and inventory sell-off conjectures. Airframe failures have been at a minimum. Owner experience is difficult to gauge: what one person tells a private buddy may never reach many public ears, rumor mongers though we pilots tend to be. *** It’s hard to see a clear picture for four of those five companies not tallying. It’s worth some digging; I’ll have Dr. Watson and my magnifying glass at the ready at Oshkosh, which starts in just three days!

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FAA’s European doppelganger is EASA ( European Aviation Safety Agency), a governmental body which has wrestled with how to “regulate the new kid” for some time. *** And EASA has at last come out with its much-anticipated CS-LSA, or Certification Specification for Light-Sport Aircraft. *** American makers have eagerly awaited the announcement so they could at least consider how they might better compete with the many LSA producers overseas that have dominated our domestic market (roughly 2 out of every 3 LSA sold here come from offshore). *** Although CS-LSA, as industry insider Dan Johnson reports, is “not exactly what the industry hoped for, it at least represents acceptance of the ASTM certification standards.” *** The benefit extends to all manufacturers foreign and domestic, since uncertainty over whether LSA aircraft produced for America, under the ASTM certification, would ever be legal to sell in Europe has been a stumbling block for Yankee sellers since the creation of LSA here in 2004. *** Light sport aircraft in Europe, known as ultralights and microlights, was already a thriving industry over there, and contributed to their acceptance here even as American makers scrambled to create, refine, upgrade and promote their own Light Sport designs. *** Working against everybody for some time has been the market’s Perfect Storm trifecta : *** 1. A high Dollar/Euro exchange rate (currently $1.41 per €1) which imposed high prices for all European-made LSA sold in this country *** 2. The Economy, duh. *** 3. The higher-than-anticipated cost of LSA from all makers foreign and domestic. *** Perhaps the biggest impact of CS-LSA on American companies will be that they can finally sell their ASTM-certified aircraft overseas. And the high Dollar to Euro exchange rate means American aircraft would be attractively priced to Europeans: they get an effective 30% discount. A U.S. aircraft priced at $90,000 would cost €60,000 over thar. *** But knocking that in the head is the nature of the CS-LSA spec itself, which incorporates many expenses not incurred in certifying aircraft to the ASTM spec in America. *** CS-LSA provides, as LAMA Europe’s head Jan Fridrich points out in Dan’s blurb on this topic, “merely another airworthiness code, which a manufacturer can choose in lieu of full EASA Type Certification.” That’s as in millions-of-dollars full. *** Say whuh? He means even under CS-LSA, any manufacturer must still get DOA (Design Organization Approval) and POA (Production Organization Approval) from EASA to produce aircraft for sale under under the new category. Which still means a significant cash outlay above and beyond typical ASTM certification costs that could run into hundreds of thousands of bucks for each model. Why? EASA charges fees for those standards. In our country, FAA’s oversight is funded by, yep, you and me, the taxpayers. Although the current debt reduction free-for-all in Congress might change that here too, who knows where that’s going? *** On top of all that, EASA also charges annual fees to keep those standards current. *** So Mr. Dan speculates this all could mean, if CS-LSA isn’t revised more favorably down the road, one of two things: *** 1. Bigger companies could pay the EASA charges and fold the increase into sales prices. *** 2. Smaller companies could say, “Nein”, throw up their hands and bail out of the entire business, finding the cost of competition too great. *** Bottom line: higher prices likely, at least for European-produced LSA. Americans who choose not to sell overseas might actually improve their appeal cost-wise here, while their EASA-conforming competition ponies up and suffers the need to produce pricier aircraft, even as those smaller European producers drop out of the game. *** One ray of hope in all of this lies in LAMA Europe’s ongoing push for a more “self-declarative” adjustment to the CS-LSA specification, which would lower or remove those added DOA and POA costs and help many companies choose to stay in business. *** Otherwise it could indeed be DOA for several companies who have hung in there all this time hoping to jump into the European market without incurring typical EASA and FAA full certification costs. *** Probably the best part of this news is that ASTM, doing well here in the U.S., now has a good foothold overseas, which expands its potential influence on light aircraft production worldwide.

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The eGenius electric motor — 60kW (80.5 hp equivalent)

A crack team of aeronautical whizbrains in the Institute of Aircraft Design at the University of Stuttgart, Germany has just passed its second important milestone in less than two months: its electric aircraft eGenius just flew more than two hours at more than 100 mph. *** Not by coincidence, that’s exactly the kind of performance that will be required to take $1.3 million top prize in the recently postponed (until September 25) CAFE Green Flight Challenge.  *** The GFC will award the prize money to the aircraft that can fly 200 miles at greater than 100 mph on the equivalent of one gallon of gas per occupant. The per occupant proviso is significant…and EGenius carries two people, so it can use enough batteries to store two gallons worth of energy.  *** That’s a lot of batteries given the current relative inefficiency of energy storage of batts vs. gas, but it appears that hurdle has been overcome, and rather handily, since there was apparently several minutes of charge left after the record-breaking flight.The eGenius, funded by Airbus, is an electric motorglider, with the requisite high-aspect wing (55 feet). It’s powered by a 60 kW (80.5 hp) motor, installed in the tail to drive a larger, more efficient prop. The battery pack can stow 56 kWh of energy. *** Flight profile included a climb to 4000 feet and an out-and-back between two nearby towns. Total distance was 211 miles, a world record for electric flight. *** This on the heels of its maiden flight in May. *** If the other entries (12 at last count) in September’s GFC big-money event aren’t shaking in their boots yet…they oughta be. It’s a stunning development and augurs well for advancing the technology by at least one leap and bound…the point of the contest in the first place. *** Let me say it again: Wow!

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 I’ve written about the topic of high-hour pilots and the need for transitioning them into LSA a fair amount now.  *** I’ve also heard about it from and talked to a lot of people about it.  Avemco Insurance, before they took a hiatus from writing new LSA policies a couple months back, wrote a minimum of 5 hours mandatory transition training into their premium contracts with pilots, stipulating, basically, this: “We don’t care if you be Sully Sullenburger or Wiley Post incarnate. If you want us to insure you in your new LSA, you will get five hours flight training in it.” *** Stumbling around the net the other day, I found this excellent piece written by Ed Downs for In Flight USA, in which he lays out the need, in particular, for veteran pilots to check the uber-confidence at the hangar door and give LSA full respect as unique aircraft with distinct behaviors. *** Definitely worth reading if you’re at all of the LSA = “little airplanes” persuasion.

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EASA (European Aviation Safety Agency) is roughly equivalent to FAA for the European Union.

Arion’s all-American Lightning could be a candidate for export to Europe, if they choose to afford the cost of EASA’s inspectors.

Rans has three SLSA models it could sell in Europe but sales may not justify the expense.

Try not to yawn. This is important. To see why, read “What does this mean…” below. *** EASA, roughly the equivalent of FAA for the European Union, finally released its CS-LSA, or Certification Specification for Light-Sport Aircraft. While not exactly what the industry hoped for, it at least represents acceptance of the ASTM certification standards. That reduces uncertainty for LSA producers in the European theater. For American producers hoping to sell across the Atlantic, CS-LSA presents an expensive choice. With the dollar low and the euro high, Made-in-the-USA aircraft could enjoy a price advantage if they could sell into Europe. *** If you’re an LSA manufacturer who must read this stuff, here’s the link to EASA’s “decision” and other documents. I plowed through this dense material but I also asked my counterpart in LAMA Europe to give me his view. *** Jan Fridrich is already known to you as the man who laboriously studies FAA’s LSA database to produce the figures I use to create our LSA market share reports. Jan said, “This is definitively a positive step from EASA, as they have practically accepted ASTM standards.” *** Jan explained further, “This is not a self-declarative system, however. It is merely another airworthiness code, which a manufacturer can choose in lieu of full EASA Type Certification.” Any manufacturer hoping to produce more than a prototype airplane must achieve Design Organization Approval (DOA) and Production Organization Approval (POA). Gaining those approvals can run tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars. *** Unlike FAA, which provides oversight with taxpayer dollars, EASA assesses Fees & Charges that are paid by the companies being reviewed. I have examined the fee chart and can confirm costs could add up to many thousands to win approval plus annual fees. |||| What does this mean to American LSA buyers? Assuming no improvement, this could go two ways. A larger company might pay EASA’s fees & charges and then factor some portion of those costs into the price they charge for their LSA. Or, smaller companies may simply say they cannot afford EASA’s bill and cease LSA production. Light-Sport Aircraft that are subject to EASA rules will experience upward price pressure. So either LSA meeting EASA rules get more expensive Or, your choices of LSA get narrower. *** Some observers might believe this could actually help American producers compete because two-thirds of our 118 SLSA presently come from Europe. Indeed, manufacturers selling to the USA that are based outside EASA jurisdiction might gain some price advantage. *** Because EASA charges nearly $300 per hour per man for a minimum of two inspectors, including every hour of their travel time (according to the Fees & Charges chart), a U.S. company wishing to sell LSA in Europe must spend a large sum of money gaining full approval… subject to wide variation depending on a company’s prior experience and preparation. LAMA Europe will continue its work to push for something closer to the U.S. self-declarative system but meanwhile, at least ASTM standards acceptance continues its global growth.

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Mogas is arriving at more airports with better pricing and better engine results. LSA owners love this stuff.

California’s Clear Gas benefits pilots (of some 70-80% of all aircraft)…

…but boat enthusiasts can also use the fuel, which can sometimes be bought at airports exposing them to recreational aviation.

After a prolonged absence, mogas is returning to airports thanks to steady efforts by a consortium lead by Dean Billing and Kent Misegades. The numbers appear small today, even if they function to help you find cheaper and cleaner mogas as an alternative to 100LL. About 3% of airports presently offer mogas. But these numbers will go only one direction assuming recent fuel trends continue. While all fuel is getting more expensive, mogas remains much less costly than avgas. Since Rotax, Jabiru, and Lycoming accommodate automobile fuel blends now, since 100LL has a questionable future, and since the price of 100LL has always been substantially more than mogas, how cannot we expect mogas at airports to increase? *** The folks at Fly Unleaded have a growing list of airports offering the auto go-juice. The list is maintained by GAFuels co-author Dean Billing. While the number offering 100LL slowly drops, the mogas suppliers continues to grow. The converts just keep on coming. *** Writes Kent Misegades, “New England pilots have another reason to be happy this summer. Coming on the heels of news from earlier this month regarding the Sanford Regional Airport, we just learned that Dexter Regional Airport (1B0) in Dexter Maine, now offers 91 octane, ethanol-free, lead-free autogas for sale.” *** “The airport’s manager, Roger Nelson, described the new service, ‘We recently installed a dual-fuel self-service system consisting of two 5,200 gallon tanks for Avgas and Autogas. All but two of the aircraft based on the airfield use autogas, since it is what our pilots prefer. All of our hangars are now filled, we have a waiting list, and are planning to build more hangars.'” *** “Roger also stated that the airport will sell ethanol-free autogas to anyone, and has already made significant sales to boaters and landscaping companies for their for lawn equipment. ‘We had one person describe the $600 expense he had for repairs to his boat’s motor as a result of ethanol in gasoline’ noted Nelson. ‘Boaters in our area are happy to find a source of ethanol-free fuel at our airport, and we are seeing many new airplanes stopping in for a top-off.'” *** Even more recently, a grassroots effort started by recreational pilots in California’s Central Valley and supported by the free Aviation Fuel Club, Clear Gas is now ready to supply airports in that state with lead-free, ethanol-free premium autogas, an FAA-approved aviation fuel since 1982.

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Skyleader 100

Atec Solo

AiRector 120

Merlin 100 with four stroke engine

While some producers add four seaters (or more) to their LSA line, others have taken a different approach. The number of attractive new single-place models at Aero was surprising as most pilots seem to believe two seats are the minimum. *** However, for years AOPA surveys have shown the average occupancy of a GA aircraft — most of which have four seats and several models have more — is, wait for it… 1.6 persons. Given all those extra seats the 1.6 figure means a significant number of all flying is done solo. So, why pay for the extra seats when you fly solo frequently? Cost of acquisition and operation can be dramatically lower in a single seater, and you have no one else to please (or worry about) except yourself. *** I’m sure I didn’t see them all — Aero features a huge display of aircraft — but here’s a few of the new single seaters I discovered. Check these low prices, too! |||| Skyleader 100 — Americans know Skyleader, in a way. Under the name Kappa, they sold the sweet-flying KP-5. Now, as part of several new models developed, the Czech producer has designed Skyleader 100, a single-seat, all-metal aircraft. Buyers can choose between a rectangular or tapered wing as presented at Aero 2011. Standing on taildragger gear, the 100 is powered by a Rotax 582 yielding a 85 mph cruise speed. Gross weight is a svelte 693 pounds with a projected price of only €35,000 ($49,000) in ready-to-fly form or even less in kit form €15,900 ($22,260). More info: Skyleader 100 |||| Atec Solo — Some Americans know the Atec Faeta SLSA but that Czech company has now introduced their Solo, a single-seat, cantilevered low-wing taildragger made like Faeta, that is, all-composite involving lots of carbon. These exotic materials yield a very low weight with plenty of strength and rigidity. The wing borrows from Atec’s older Zephyr and Faeta using slotted flaps to lower landing speeds. More info: Atec Solo |||| AiRector 120 — The sleekest of the singles in this article is the AiRector 120 (the number refers to its empty weight in kilograms). Weighing only 264 pounds empty AiRector is powered by a Hirth two-cylinder, two-stroke engine. The northern Germany company expects first flight in fall of 2011 with cruise expected in the 100-mph range. The single seat taildragger has an all-composite airframe that will be built in a new factory in northern Germany. Current plans call for a price of only €40,000 ($60,000). More info: AiRector 120 |||| TechPro Merlin — Another Czech producer displayed their still-in-development single-seat kit aircraft, the Merlin 100. Here’s an all-metal, tricycle-gear airplane using matched-hole tooling to ease the builder’s effort. With its unusual two-cylinder, four-stroke Verner 35-hp engine, Merlin is projected to weigh just 264 pounds. A prototype has logged 100 hours and a second prototype is being built. TechPro plans to sell the aircraft only as a kit, with a projected price of €5,000 ($7,000), less engine. Bargain hunters, take note! More info: TechPro Merlin |||| Also, don’t forget the also single place all-electric Electra One. We’ll have more on it later plus other great aircraft seen at Aero 2011.

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PA-17 Vagabond Trainer Photo courtesy UK Airshow Review

“Come one, come all!” says the invitation to the great, annual Piper Fly-In that’s coming up next week. *** Dubbed SENTIMENTAL JOURNEY 2011, it’s the 26th anniversary of this “Family-Oriented” event. ***  It’s held at – where else? – William T. Piper Airport (KLHV) in Lock Haven, PA. *** The dates for those of you who are, like myself, Cub afflicted, is June 22 — 25, 2011. You can fly in (an airspace How-To is on the organizer’s website), drive in, camp under a wing for $15/nite if you like (lots of folks do) or stay at one of several hotels, motels or B&Bs in the area. Dozens of Cubs alone, along with other models, make the trek every year. *** The Piper Museum and Memorial area also there: that’s worth a trip for cub lovers all by itself. *** There are events and contests such as seminars, flea markets, bomb drop, spot landing, corn roasts, awards, nightly bands, tours and more. *** This year’s theme: “Vagabonds Saved Piper”. *** Featured planes will be the PA-15 Vagabond and PA-17 Vagabond Trainer.Tickets are cheap enough at $8, $4 for kids 13 — 17 and under 12 youngsters are free – hard to beat that these days for a classic aircraft lovefest. *** Another note: All makes and models of aircraft are welcomed. Since most current pilots have some connection to those early Pipers anyway, no reason not to come if you’re in the neighborhood. *** I’ll be there catching some air and lots of photos for some stories. *** Also hoping for good weather for all flying in… I’m still recovering from the 6 days it took in a Cub-type to get from Iowa to Florida against bad weather for Sun ‘ Fun!

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