LSA Market Shares Archives - Page 5 of 8

New LSA Market Info; Here Come the Big Boys

By Dan Johnson || September 6, 2010 Leave a Comment

CSA's PiperSport, distributed worldwide by Piper photo courtesy Piper Aircraft

Cessna Skycatcher photo courtesy Cessna Aircraft

Perhaps you've noticed we have not been reporting market share information as often as we once did. Two reasons: (1) the market has matured, meaning the leaders are distancing themselves from niche producers and the rank positions aren't moving around as much; (2) in the economic doldrums, the numbers simply haven't been changing as quickly. *** But since the last report, some action occurred that shines a spotlight on an expected development. The aviation Big Boys are climbing upward... Piper advanced into the #3 spot, pushing also-strong CubCrafters down a notch. The legacy Florida company is closing on #2 American Legend. Secondly, while still well down the chart, Cessna moved up from #20 to #17 enroute toward the top. Based on the company's reported 1,000+ orders, it seems only a matter of time before they outrun everyone. Or, will they...? *** Nothing is sure in business (or economies, it appears). And several LSA producers have been nimble, adding new products, building new dealer and flight school networks on a steady pace, and notably, not having to carry old baggage. *** Indeed, at least one producer (who must remain nameless) said a post-Oshkosh uptick in orders can very likely be attributed to Cessna's growing Skycatcher fleet. The theory is that when Cessna (and Cirrus) first announced LSA projects, the existing LSA market benefitted from the validation this represented. Cessna studied long and hard and concluded, "Yes, we are sure a market for a Light-Sport Aircraft exists." *** Then quite of bit of time passed and we saw no Skycatchers except as part of the company's airshow displays. That's over. Cessna is shipping. This may help other strong players as customers signal growing acceptance of LSA. *** Perhaps it's the impending U.S. elections or a drop in jarring news headlines, or whatever... but the LSA market appears to be showing life, and a good bit of the movement is from those Big Boys in aviation.

Perhaps you’ve noticed we have not been reporting market share information as often as we once did. Two reasons: (1) the market has matured, meaning the leaders are distancing themselves from niche producers and the rank positions aren’t moving around as much; (2) in the economic doldrums, the numbers simply haven’t been changing as quickly. *** But since the last report, some action occurred that shines a spotlight on an expected development. The aviation Big Boys are climbing upward… Piper advanced into the #3 spot, pushing also-strong CubCrafters down a notch. The legacy Florida company is closing on #2 American Legend. Secondly, while still well down the chart, Cessna moved up from #20 to #17 enroute toward the top. Based on the company’s reported 1,000+ orders, it seems only a matter of time before they outrun everyone. Or, will they…? *** Nothing is sure in business (or economies, it appears).

LSA Sales Continue Slowly; Change Among Leaders

By Dan Johnson || August 26, 2010 Leave a Comment

In the chart above, the Top 20 companies represent going businesses. Companies with enough registered aircraft to qualify for the Top 20 but which are insolvent or inactive were removed to present a truer picture of the current fleet of active companies.

While most of the LSA industry — as with most of aviation — endures unprecedented slow sales, at least two companies are showing reasonably good 2010 performances. *** Washington-based CubCrafters is the clear market leader for the first seven months of 2010, with 27 new registrations. We repeat, as always, that FAA registrations do not equal sales; individual company statistics may be different. Following CubCrafters is CSA's PiperSport with 18 new registrations and Flight Design with an even dozen. *** All the Big Six companies remain the same — in their rank for the entire LSA fleet — though some shifting occurred: Flight Design; American Legend; CubCrafters (moving from 4th to 3rd ranked); Tecnam (3rd to 4th); Czech Sport Aircraft (builder of the PiperSport, 6th to 5th); and Remos (5th to 6th). These Big Six all have more than 100 registered airplanes in FAA's database, though they are trailed by only a few airplanes by Jabiru USA and Evektor. AMD and TL Ultralight (up to 9th from 10th) are in a third tier of the top ten. *** Two companies advanced into the Top 20 rank positions for the first time: Paradise; and airplane manufacturing giant, Cessna. Other brands to watch include Arion, and FK Lightplanes. *** Of the three companies with the most action this year, CubCrafters has moved forward smartly. Flight Design is always a contender. But the main one to watch closely may be Piper. According to LSA project manager Russ Greenberg, the company is "on track to meet our January forecast of 75 airplanes sold in 2010." Though their FAA registrations show 18 for the year, Piper reported 40 sales consummated by AirVenture 2010. If the company hits their target and if all were registered in 2010 (unlikely), PiperSport-producer CSA could dislodge American Legend in the number two spot. However, forecasting the future is hazardous at best; for true information we'll have to wait for the final answer just before January's Sebring LSA Expo.

First Third of 2010 Even Slower than 2009

By Dan Johnson || May 18, 2010 Leave a Comment

Cub replicas from two U.S. producers -- CubCrafters and American Legend -- represented one third of all SLSA registered in 2010, even higher than their common 20% share. As always, hearty thanks to Jan Fridrich for his hard work to gather all this information.

Sun 'n Fun was a bright spot for the light aircraft industry as more than 20 sales appeared likely or were consummated. Yet anecdotal reports about generally sluggish sales were confirmed in a recent review. At least until Sun 'n Fun, Light-Sport Aircraft FAA registrations show 2010 was even slower than a tough 2009. Last year, the industry registered 234 airplanes (plus weight-shift and powered parachutes yielding approximately 275 total LSA of all types). That's more than 20 airplanes a month, yet 2010 appears to have slowed to around 15 per month. Those figures compare with about 45 per month back in 2006 and 2007. *** Why? No one has a crystal ball, but common suspects are: * an oscillating stock market causing hesitation among would-be buyers; * government budget problems, both in Europe and in the U.S.; * a still-stagnant housing market; and, * a widely-held feeling that LSA are still proving themselves, both for the certification method and many unfamiliar brands especially when the latter affects perceptions of customer service. *** I believe the industry is addressing the last issues, but the rest are far beyond the control of producers, even as a group. Nonetheless 2010 offers a couple surprises and some familiar results. Following is a brief recap to accompany our standard chart, which shows market rank expressed as total fleet size since the first registrations in 2005. *** The top surprises are a strong performance by CubCrafters, which registered 17 aircraft in the first third of 2010 (January through April) moving up to the #4 position, and the arrival of Paradise in the Top 20 Ranking. For 2010 FAA registrations, the SportCub builder was trailed by Flight Design at 9; Tecnam at 8; CSA (PiperSport) with 7; Cessna 6; American Legend, Arion (Lightning), and Paradise at 3 each; and TL (Sportair USA), Aeropro (Aerotrek), and FPNA at 2 each. *** However, some familiar Top 10 brands are eerily quiet: Remos, Jabiru, Evektor, and AMD. One possible bright spot: the euro's sharp decline against the dollar may reduce the retail price of European imports. Another: Sun 'n Fun sales success may be the beginning of a new phase.

Sun ‘n Fun was a bright spot for the light aircraft industry as more than 20 sales appeared likely or were consummated. Yet anecdotal reports about generally sluggish sales were confirmed in a recent review. At least until Sun ‘n Fun, Light-Sport Aircraft FAA registrations show 2010 was even slower than a tough 2009. Last year, the industry registered 234 airplanes (plus weight-shift and powered parachutes yielding approximately 275 total LSA of all types). That’s more than 20 airplanes a month, yet 2010 appears to have slowed to around 15 per month. Those figures compare with about 45 per month back in 2006 and 2007. *** Why? No one has a crystal ball, but common suspects are: * an oscillating stock market causing hesitation among would-be buyers; * government budget problems, both in Europe and in the U.S.; * a still-stagnant housing market; and, * a widely-held feeling that LSA are still proving themselves, both for the certification method and many unfamiliar brands especially when the latter affects perceptions of customer service.

FAA Forecasts Robust LSA Growth… For A While

By Dan Johnson || March 11, 2010 Leave a Comment

Growth Potential -- FAA wrote, "...new light sport aircraft could erode the replacement market for traditional piston aircraft." In 2008 single-engine fixed-wing piston aircraft totaled 166,514 aircraft. Comparable (fully-built) SLSA numbered 1,785 by the end of 2009, or 1.07%. Photos above depict the top four best sellers

FAA issued a 20-year forecast for aviation to 2030. According the the agency Light-Sport Aircraft sales will grow by 825 per year through 2013 and then taper off to 335 per year. Hmmm? One wonders why it should fall so dramatically and so soon? Except in a lousy 2009, the LSA industry has generously exceeded 335 units per year -- and this while the industry also had to build its entire infrastructure: a system of certification, distribution channels, service centers, parts inventory, trained flight instructors, and much more. *** The LSA industry's best year was 2007 at 565 airplanes. Last year, the figure was only 234 units. In 2006, 491 units were registered and 2008 added 406 units... all numbers relate to new SLSA fixed wing airplanes; add 15-20% for other Light-Sport Aircraft categories as weight-shift, powered parachute, and glider. *** Given Cessna's 1,000+ Skycatcher backlog, perhaps they'll build 200-400 per year in 2011, '12, and '13. If the rest of the industry returns to 400-600 per year -- approximately the track record so far -- total production would be 600-1,000 SLSA per year. So, FAA's figures appear in the ballpark... for the next three years. *** But then, what does the agency see happening to cause the industry to slide 60% to just over 300 units per year? Perhaps it's because FAA assumes a net growth of just 6,099 general aviation airplanes over 20 years, or 305 per year. Yet GA manufacturers logged 2,119 single engine general aviation (SEGA) deliveries in 2008 and 965 even in the awful 2009, which is significantly more than FAA's forecast 300 per year rate. It appears FAA envisions only modest growth for either GA or LSA in the next 20 years. Time will tell.

Light-Sport Represents 20-25% of GA Piston Sales

By Dan Johnson || February 27, 2010 Leave a Comment

Market Crunch -- After the market fall of the last two years (like the snow-laden roof that crashed on a small flock of bizjets), LSA could recover first, thanks to lower purchase and operation costs. Balancing that... after five years of LSA, the entire industry still represents less than 1% of all single engine aircraft in America.

It has to get better! According to GAMA, the organization which represents the Type Certified aircraft world, "2009 worldwide shipments of general aviation airplanes declined for a second year in a row with a total of 2,276 units delivered, a 42.6 percent decrease over the previous year's total of 3,967 airplanes." However, GAMA numbers include twins and turbines, which include all bizjets. *** A fairer comparison to Light-Sport compares only piston aircraft. Here GAMA says, "The piston airplane segment experienced the greatest decline at 54.5 percent. Shipments totaled 965 airplanes in 2009, compared to 2,119 unit airplanes in 2008." *** Think about those two numbers. They compare to 234 LSA in the difficult year of 2009, down 42% from 2008's 406-unit performance. LSA sales -- as measured by aircraft N-number registrations -- show the ratios between general aviation and Light-Sport. In 2009 LSA sales equated to 24% of GA piston sales; both figures are industry-wide. In 2008 the ratio was 19%, so while significantly off, LSA did slightly better than GA piston sales in 2009. *** LSA registration numbers are down from 2007 (565 fixed wing aircraft registered) and 2006 (491). But discounting economic woes, the figures appear to show that LSA represent somewhere between 20 and 25% of GA piston sales and I predict this share will rise, with LSA becoming closer to 33 to 50% of all piston sales. *** When will that happen? It could be another five years, allowing for four factors: general economic recovery; increased acceptance of the LSA concept; continued adoption of ASTM standards in more countries; and the opening of potentially giant markets like China and India. Some experts believe global interest in LSA will also stimulate U.S. sales.

It has to get better! According to GAMA, the organization which represents the Type Certified aircraft world, “2009 worldwide shipments of general aviation airplanes declined for a second year in a row with a total of 2,276 units delivered, a 42.6 percent decrease over the previous year’s total of 3,967 airplanes.” However, GAMA numbers include twins and turbines, which include all bizjets. *** A fairer comparison to Light-Sport compares only piston aircraft. Here GAMA says, “The piston airplane segment experienced the greatest decline at 54.5 percent. Shipments totaled 965 airplanes in 2009, compared to 2,119 unit airplanes in 2008.” *** Think about those two numbers. They compare to 234 LSA in the difficult year of 2009, down 42% from 2008’s 406-unit performance. LSA sales — as measured by aircraft N-number registrations — show the ratios between general aviation and Light-Sport. In 2009 LSA sales equated to 24% of GA piston sales; both figures are industry-wide.

Light-Sport Aircraft Market Shares through 2009

By Dan Johnson || January 17, 2010 Leave a Comment

Better Times Ahead? -- Along with the rest of the U.S. and global economy, we expect much improved results for light aviation in 2010. Numerous indications appear to suggest good trends but questions remain, for example, FAA actions based on their 2008/2009 Assessment Project.

If you refer back to our earlier reports, you can easily see 2009 was a down year (no surprise, right?). General aviation was off more than 50% and Light-Sport was down badly as well, with 42% less registrations than in 2008. *** With this post, we present our now-somewhat-famous chart. We hear from some who say they prefer the info to be broken out for the last year only and I will give a summary of those figures below. We realize the limitations of such a brief portrayal of the market situation. But to maintain consistency from chart to chart, we continue to present the relative market shares since the first registrations were filed back in April 2005. *** However, I did omit two listings as they recorded no new entries for more than two years. Interplane and Jihlavan technically rank in the top 20 but their inactivity resulted in a drop from the chart. I also dropped Sky Arrow as its producer is under court management. Fantasy Air ceased operations in the Czech Republic but Allegro USA is working to restart production in America, so we continue to show their strong initial performance. Urban Air, which remains on the chart, has stopped manufacturing. If I omitted the Lambada builder, Paradise would make the top 20. *** My excellent associate, Jan Fridrich -- who compiles this info from FAA's registration database -- works hard to determine which aircraft are truly SLSA (and not ELSA or other categories) and it remains a struggle due to FAA's data entry procedures. This is why we cannot show trikes or powered parachutes, with regrets. Given the preceding statements, we believe this to be an accurate list. Many hours go into this effort and Jan deserves a hearty thanks. *** FOR 2009... it was a lousy year and I will not present the same chart detail. But here are the top 10 brands with the most FAA registrations for the year: Remos (32); Czech Aircraft Works/Czech Sport Aircraft (31); CubCrafters (24); Flight Design and Tecnam (tied at 20); RANS (18); Jabiru US (11); American Legend, Aerotrek (Aeropro), and Skykits (tied at 7). *** REMEMBER -- All numbers are FAA registrations and not sales. Each company may have slightly different data to report.

LSA Market Shares Are Stable through August 2009

By Dan Johnson || October 9, 2009 Leave a Comment

Top Guns -- Since January 2008, or over the last 20 months, the FAA registration leaders are -- in order: Remos; Flight Design; (tie) Tecnam and Czech Sport Aircraft; Jabiru, American Legend; CubCrafters; AMD; Aeropro (Aerotrek); TL Ultralight (Sting); and Evektor. These 11 brands account for 72% of all FAA registrations. As always, my thanks to Jan Fridrich for the considerable effort it takes to sift through FAA's database.

As the challenging year for aircraft sales grinds on, Light-Sport Aircraft continue to hold their own. In tough times, when cash is tight, small enterprises may fare better than large companies. Their low expense structures, modestly compensated managers and employees, and lean manufacturing -- as allowed by industry-standards certification -- become strengths. *** But we see another quality. The half-million-plus general aviation pilots are more accepting of LSA today than three years ago. Organizations like AOPA are more fully embracing LSA, because their members are calling to ask questions. (Watch for a surprise LSA announcement at AOPA's Aviation Summit in about a month!) GA pilots make up most buyers of LSA and those aviators now recognize the brands and have begun to acquire faith in companies certifying themselves (though many are still reserving judgement). *** Through August, a full month after AirVenture, the LSA fleet has grown to just under 1,700 fully-built aircraft not including ELSA kits or alternative aircraft like trikes and powered parachutes, nor any converted ultralights. The LSA market leaders have remained about the same and held their same positions (more info: chart). *** I see four up-and-comers to watch: Aerotrek (Aeropro); American producer, RANS; Gobosh (importing two airplanes); and Brazilian entry Paradise. In addition to the top-10 that hold three-quarters of the market, these four brands are working hard and moving up. In 2010, we'll begin to see Cessna numbers plus a few new entries. It stays exciting here at aviation's entry level. [UPDATE 10/7/09] CubCrafters identified additional SLSA not included in the accompanying chart. Such errors happen due to a large number of LSA models and the FAA database entry of them. According to better information, it appears CubCrafters has leapfrogged into the #5 slot, and the exclusive triple-digit club, with 100 total CubCrafters SLSA.

Computers in the Cockpit; Digital Replaces Analog

By Dan Johnson || June 6, 2009 Leave a Comment

Dynon's line includes (top left, clockwise): D-120 EMS, D-10 EMS round-hole panel mount, D-10a EFIS round-hole mount, and D-100 EFIS. "We are much more vertically integrated than our competitors, meaning we design and make everything we sell...our products are better integrated," claims Dynon.

Many website visitors ask about LSA avionics leadership. Indeed, ever since "steam gauges" gave way to glass screens, the players have changed. Analog instruments were made by many companies and became such commodities that you may not be able to name a brand. But as computers entered our cockpits, first via GPS and later with multi-function displays, brands became better known. *** For this mini-report, I'll divide the new players into two groups: EFIS/EMS providers and GPS/radio providers. A third group will include autopilot builders and even newer gear like night vision systems. As I make some guesstimates about market shares, I acknowledge this is non-scientific. If you believe you have better information, please forward your comments. *** Among fully-built SLSA, it appears Dynon has the lion's share of the digital instrument market (photo). They admit their biggest competitor remains analog gauges but in "glass cockpits," the Washington state company appears to have the lead -- estimated at 50-75%. Two top manufacturers, Flight Design and Remos, use only Dynon. In the Experimental (EAB) market, Dynon is the probable leader though they have competitors such as Grand Rapids Technology, Advanced Flight Systems, Blue Mountain, and MGL Avionics...each of which also has installations in SLSA. One educated guess is that Dynon has half the EAB digital market, where GRT and AFS have another sixth each and Blue Mountain and MGL have something less than 10% each.

Many website visitors ask about LSA avionics leadership. Indeed, ever since “steam gauges” gave way to glass screens, the players have changed. Analog instruments were made by many companies and became such commodities that you may not be able to name a brand. But as computers entered our cockpits, first via GPS and later with multi-function displays, brands became better known. *** For this mini-report, I’ll divide the new players into two groups: EFIS/EMS providers and GPS/radio providers. A third group will include autopilot builders and even newer gear like night vision systems. As I make some guesstimates about market shares, I acknowledge this is non-scientific. If you believe you have better information, please forward your comments. *** Among fully-built SLSA, it appears Dynon has the lion’s share of the digital instrument market (photo). They admit their biggest competitor remains analog gauges but in “glass cockpits,” the Washington state company appears to have the lead — estimated at 50-75%.

Strong Survive Tough Economy…Some Repositioning

By Dan Johnson || May 12, 2009 Leave a Comment

Though a few other brands (Evektor, CZAW, CubCrafters, and Jabiru) are closing on the 100-airplanes-registered benchmark, the four brands pictured above constitute the only triple-digit sellers and have 40% of all SLSA registrations. LSA performance in 2009 got closer to general aviation deliveries as the GA piston market sunk by a very steep 55% in 1Q09.

We continue to see the effects of the last year of economic turmoil in Light-Sport Aircraft market shares. The chart accompanying this SPLOG tells the numbers as always presented, with total market share since the first deliveries in 2005 based on carefully-reviewed FAA registration data. The top twenty (of 70 total) producers still represent almost 90% of total SLSA registrations. For the record... registrations on FAA's database are not the same as sales. Aircraft can be registered and not sold. Aircraft can be identified as sold yet no longer registered, for example, if removed from service due to a non-repairable crash. To get some idea of the work my associate Jan Fridrich does to collect this information, go look for yourself at FAA's database. *** Remos continues its solid 2008 performance despite the troubled economy. In the 16-month period since January 1, 2008 the German brand is the leader with 73 units registered, followed by familiar names, in order: Flight Design 62; Tecnam 49; Czech Aircraft Works (see below) 44; Jabiru 32; American Legend 27; AMD 23; CubCrafters 22; Aeropro 14, plus Evektor and TL Ultralight at 12 each. These 11 brands registered 74% of all new SLSA airplanes. *** One of the largest business developments since Czech-based Fantasy Air went down is the change of ownership at the maker of the SportCruiser. Formerly Czech Aircraft Works (CZAW), the company is now called Czech Sport Aircraft. New operators state they will support the fleet of 89 models flying... half of them delivered in the last year. Meanwhile, Fantasy Air importer Doug Hempstead reports he expects U.S.-based production of the Allegro to start later this year.

Avemco Offers “Favored Rates” for Selected SLSA

By Dan Johnson || May 9, 2009 Leave a Comment

"We've experienced a very dramatic improvement in operational safety," said Avemco. Here's the 13 SLSA with "favored rates" --- Legend Cub; Flight Design CTLS, CTsw, MC; CubCrafters Sport Cub and Super Sport Cub; FPNA Valor A-22 (top photo); Jabiru J170 SP, J230 SP, and J250SP (bottom); Remos G-3 and GX; Tecnam P2002 Sierra, P2004 Bravo, P92 Eaglet, and P92S Echo Super.

REPORTING AFTER SUN 'N FUN --- Not as exciting as a perfect landing, insurance is nonetheless a vital component of flying. For the most part: no insurance/no flying. And, as we've seen play out on the national stage with AIG (though not the aviation division) insurance is anything but assured when it comes to even giant companies failing. When you pay thousands of dollars per year as one expense of your flying, you want to know your company will be around to cover any loss. *** Avemco says it is the largest direct insurer -- meaning they deal insurance company to owner without a middleman. They also report receiving an A+ rating for 25 consecutive years from A.M. Best, the insurance rating agency. Yet it gets much better. *** At Sun 'n Fun Avemco president, Jim Lauerman announced "favored rates" for selected Special Light-Sport Aircraft (see photo caption). This means that Avemco has judged these brands worked hard to assure good transition training, which has resulted in reduced losses. They also provide good parts availability and have reasonable repair costs. *** The great news surrounds reducing claims from LSA operators. Avemco went from high losses per premium dollar to "finding a small profit from the business...for a three year old product, that's not bad." In fact, that's good for Light-Sport Aircraft: Have insurance/will keep flying!

REPORTING AFTER SUN ‘N FUN — Not as exciting as a perfect landing, insurance is nonetheless a vital component of flying. For the most part: no insurance/no flying. And, as we’ve seen play out on the national stage with AIG (though not the aviation division) insurance is anything but assured when it comes to even giant companies failing. When you pay thousands of dollars per year as one expense of your flying, you want to know your company will be around to cover any loss. *** Avemco says it is the largest direct insurer — meaning they deal insurance company to owner without a middleman. They also report receiving an A+ rating for 25 consecutive years from A.M. Best, the insurance rating agency. Yet it gets much better. *** At Sun ‘n Fun Avemco president, Jim Lauerman announced “favored rates” for selected Special Light-Sport Aircraft (see photo caption).