LSA Market Shares Archives - Page 3 of 8

REVISED: World Aviation Statistics with New Data

By Dan Johnson || June 1, 2015 2 Comments

Revised Article UPDATED: 6/5/15 / New total LSA and LSA-like chart (at bottom) — At best statistics can be fluid and hard to state precisely. In response to my request for any Australian input below, Neil Jansen responded, "I found some data sourced from the authority that manages such aircraft categories in Australia (Recreational Aviation Australia)." He attached a PDF article. After my review of this document, I can say that I was not grossly off in my guesstimate of 2,000 LSA-type aircraft. I attempted to be conservative and evidently I was. From a review of the charts and article, I would now increase my Australia figures from 2,000 to perhaps 2,700 so the final calculus of around 50,000 worldwide aircraft looks even more solid. That said, my European counterpart, Jan Fridrich, and I since had a conversation that suggests even 50,000 may not fully cover it. However, better to be conservative on such estimates, I believe. —DJ

One of my favorite tales was taken from an old Delta Air Lines house magazine, the sort sent to employees of the company before email invaded our lives. Airlines have their own meteorology departments and the Delta guys once wrote, "Every time you forecast the weather, you know you're wrong; you just don't know by how much or when. If you are ever right, never let 'em forget it." Ah, yes, remember when we correctly forecast that big storm, back in 1967? I got a lot of chuckles from telling that story. Weather forecasting is much better today, but statistics can often be wrong despite best efforts. Along this line, I heard from a reader, an engineer in Italy, "In your article 'Analyzing Statistics on Worldwide Aviation,' you did not mention my country."

In this update article, I wish to correct that shortcoming and add a couple more pieces of information. The result of my deeper examination pushes sport and recreational aircraft closer to 50,000 worldwide. My Italian reader, who preferred I did not use his name, wrote, "Apart from being the country from where several LSA aircraft arrive — he mentions Tecnam, which may be the largest LSA and light aircraft producer on the planet — we have over 13,000 registered "ultralight" aircraft with the Aeroclub of Italy (a national institution managing registrations of ultralight aircraft, including gyrocopters and helicopters)." I add that Germany does something similar with its DAeC and DULV, which might account for GAMA having zero information about microlights in Germany, a nation I know to have a significant number of such aircraft.

The Italian engineer continued with his amplification, "Although the number (13,000) includes 'ancient' aircraft from the '80s that might be out of commission now, I can confirm that well over 6,000 aircraft are flying from hundreds of grass strips and aerodromes across the country." As such, this places Italy — correctly so, based on corroborating information — in the top tier of countries with a large base of light and sport aircraft. "The reason why [the aircraft count] is not so obvious," he further clarified, "is that the certification of pilots and aircraft is done outside of ENAC (Italian equivalent of FAA) and therefore does not get reported in the usual channels where numbers of registered aircraft are accounted." "Ultralight (generally meaning the European name for light two seaters, not the U.S. superlight single seaters) registrations for Italy follow the [aircraft registration] format I-1234, or I-A123 now that we passed 10,000 registrations. I have seen I-C1xx (can't remember the exact number, but it means that we passed 13,000 registrations already)." He added, "I think we had over 2,000 in the last five years or so."

Looking at the pilot side of the equation, he noted, "On a forum I read the impressive number of 17,500 active ultralight pilots." "So, despite the obvious intention of keeping a low profile to make sure that the Revenue Service does not develop some new creative tax to hit a vulnerable sector, it looks like there are plenty of pilots and planes filling our skies," the Italian writer concluded. He then invited, "Come visit and we'll be happy to show you around." That's an offer I'd like to take when I also wish to visit the large Tecnam facility in Italy. My source finished his message saying, "I fly a older Aeronca with American N-numbers using an FAA Private certificate and therefore I don't even show up in that list." I also managed to overlook two other countries of note. My apology and the only excuse I can offer is that GAMA assembled a great deal of info and I simply did not absorb it all. However, the news is good for the light aircraft sector as the numbers rose considerably from my first estimate of about 40,000 light and/or sport aircraft in the world. I still don't know exactly how to evaluate Australia's numbers — as they did not break out the LSA-type group in any identifiable way — but I would conservatively guess their microlight/LSA/VLA sector could have around 2,000 light or sport aircraft. If someone in that country knows better, please do educate me. I'd like for these reviews to be as accurate as possible. However, neighboring New Zealand offered more data. Their listing through me off as they switched methods after 2005 and again after 2010. Yet based on further study, I can see they show 1,059 "microlights" and they once showed a high, in 2009 of 1,853 "Sport" aircraft. From this I might guess they have around 2,000 of what might be called LSA-types. So, with good Italy info and more from down under, I feel reasonably confident reporting that pilots around the globe fly somewhere around 50,000 light, sport, recreational aircraft. The update of substantial information about Italy and my further pondering of the many pages in GAMA's detailed report suggest two things to me. First, statistics are devilishly hard to obtain and are subject to all sorts of inconsistencies, many of human origin. Secondly, no matter how you cut it, light and sport aircraft are a very substantial sector of the worldwide family of aircraft. Here you can examine our chart for LSA and LSA-like aircraft around the world. Please consider all the notes to interpret the figures.

Revised Article UPDATED: 6/5/15 / New total LSA and LSA-like chart (at bottom) — At best statistics can be fluid and hard to state precisely. In response to my request for any Australian input below, Neil Jansen responded, “I found some data sourced from the authority that manages such aircraft categories in Australia (Recreational Aviation Australia).” He attached a PDF article. After my review of this document, I can say that I was not grossly off in my guesstimate of 2,000 LSA-type aircraft. I attempted to be conservative and evidently I was. From a review of the charts and article, I would now increase my Australia figures from 2,000 to perhaps 2,700 so the final calculus of around 50,000 worldwide aircraft looks even more solid. That said, my European counterpart, Jan Fridrich, and I since had a conversation that suggests even 50,000 may not fully cover it.

Analyzing Statistics on Worldwide Aviation

By Dan Johnson || May 23, 2015 Leave a Comment

Update Notice — The following article has been updated to reflect additional information. Please read at this link.

Thanks to a solid effort by GAMA, the General Aviation Manufacturers Association, I have data that can be used to assess the numbers of recreational aircraft around the world. That organization is significantly focused on business aircraft but did include all levels of aircraft in their country-by-country review. Whatever the actual level of accuracy — GAMA is wholly dependent on the data the organization received from various CAAs in each country — GAMA's data is some very useful info and I am in their debt for the information discussed in this review. In addition to GAMA having to use whatever each country reported, the methods of reporting were not consistent. For one noteworthy example, several countries listed as their smallest aircraft those weighing 5,700 kilograms (12,540 pounds), which represents far larger aircraft than your typical four-seat GA aircraft and certainly any recreational aircraft. Many European countries listed "microlights" or "ultralights," two common descriptions for aircraft that commonly look like Light-Sport Aircraft do in America. However, Germany, home to many microlights or ultralights, oddly did not report this category. The Czech Republic, home to many LSA producers, was also not reported. Therefore, it's probably wise to consider my following analysis with a degree of caution. Regardless of its reliability, this is the best compendium I've seen so thanks again to our friends at GAMA.

To provide some perspective, let's look at certified GA aircraft first. From its peak in 1978, U.S.-manufactured GA deliveries have fallen dramatically, by 93% from 14,398 single engine piston aircraft in 1978 to 986 in 2014. Fortunately, since 2000 the continuing drop is less severe, for example in 2006, worldwide GAMA members reported delivering a new millennia peak of 2,513 aircraft; the decline to 986 is a drop of 61%. The '60s and '70s were clearly the "golden era" for GA piston airplane production. Accounting for this drop, beside pilot population decreases (see below) and airplanes lasting so long — the average age of four seater is 38.2 years old — most competition likely came from non-flying activities. Among aircraft choices, Experimentals in the last two decades have grown 143% to nearly 25,000 aircraft. LSA in fully built or kit form add to GA's competition although much less so partly as Experimentals have been around much longer. Overall, the overall GA fleet has held reasonably steady despite the references above, declining from a peak of piston airplanes in FAA's registry of 197,442 in 1984 to 137,655 in 2013, a drop of about 30%. When you add kit-built aircraft and LSA, the total fleet numbers look relatively stable. In geographic location of that U.S. aircraft fleet the conventional knowledge about the biggest three states still holds, with California having 26,141 aircraft registered, followed by Texas at 22,851, trailed by Florida at 18,162. The next closest state (Washington) has barely half the Florida count ... but see below for where pilots live.

The number of airmen — pilots with certificates — explains some of the aircraft delivery decreases. From a peak in GAMA's numbers of 827,071 licensed pilots in 1980 to the current number of 593,499, I calculate a drop of 28% over 34 years. Keep in mind that nearly 47,000 of those airmen are not Americans but foreign nationals holding a U.S. certificate. Private Pilots have dropped by 51%, but many of those probably went on to higher ratings as ATPs grew by 120% in the same period to account for 26% of all certificate holders. No doubt related to that, CFIs grew by 67% to become 17% of all certificate holders and pilots with Instrument ratings also increased by 18%. Those holding a Spot Pilot certificate now totals 5,157, reported GAMA, while Recreational Pilot peaked at 343 in 1999 and has since shrunk to only 220 certificates. Neither of the last two amount to even 1% of all license holders though the other certificate categories have several decades of history the newer ones lack. You might lament the Sport Pilot certificate numbers. Certainly, many in the GA world thought Sport Pilot was single-handedly going to grow the pilot population a lot more. While I do not believe that was ever a realistic expectation, here's some good news. Most pilots I know think the pilot population is graying quickly and that we may be in danger of running out of pilots. GAMA's stats say otherwise. The biggest single category may be what you expect with those aged 50-64 counting 179,277 pilots but the surprising second largest segment is close behind. Those aged a young 20-35 years old number 173,396 pilots. The 35-50 cohort is much smaller, perhaps as they are busy raising families and paying for mortgages and college eductions for their kids. In the top ten states for pilot populations, California still leads with 59,213 but Florida has climbed into the number #2 slot at 52,976 — and the state is number one in flight instructors with 9,592 — followed by Texas with 49,614 total pilots, Washington state (18,665), Georgia (18,131), Arizona (18,029), Illinois (16,307), New York (15,949), Pennsylvania (15,187), and Ohio (15,137). Now let's look at LSA-type aircraft elsewhere in the world. I have reported that the rest of world accounts for large numbers of "sport" or "light" airplanes, much more than the USA. This is definitely not the case in the certified GA aircraft world where America dominates. As mentioned above, the method of counting is all over the place — and in saying that I mean no disrespect to GAMA's Herculean effort nor the stats provided by reporting national CAAs. Nonetheless the variable reporting methods makes it difficult to come up with exact numbers. I plodded through chart after chart and here's my analysis.

Where I could identify microlights, ultralights, or LSA types, I calculated 19,613 aircraft in what might be called "greater Europe" (mostly EU countries). Making an informed guess of at least 4,000 "microlight/ultralight" for Germany — which country, as noted above, did not supply a detailed value for this category — and adding non-European countries such as South Africa (6,072 including "Sport, Recreational, and Experimental"), Canada (7,125 "ultralights"), and Brazil plus Asian countries (small counts for several nations), I make a best estimate of about 40,000 LSA-type aircraft outside the USA. This figure includes estimates for Sweden and Switzerland that did not break out their reporting. Also included in the 40,000 count is England with strong numbers of 4,029 "microlights" and 3,269 "Fixed Wing Aeroplanes of less than 750 kilograms" (1,650 pounds). See updated figures in this newer article. SPECIAL NOTES: France is singular reporting 8,476 "ultralights" (counted in the 19,613 number), the most of any country, while Germany deserves separate mention for having 7,657 sailplanes plus 3,357 motorgliders — more than any other country in the world by far — though they are not LSA types. In summation, my earlier reporting suggests that while certified aircraft and the pilot population are in a long-term decline (a fairly well-known assessment), sport and recreational aircraft, including kit-built, continue to expand. Given entry by emerging aviation countries like China and India with their immense populations, the expected increase of the light, sport segment looks to remain aviation's growth sector. Then, we have the developing LSA 4.0 group, but that's another story ...

Update Notice — The following article has been updated to reflect additional information. Please read at this link. Thanks to a solid effort by GAMA, the General Aviation Manufacturers Association, I have data that can be used to assess the numbers of recreational aircraft around the world. That organization is significantly focused on business aircraft but did include all levels of aircraft in their country-by-country review. Whatever the actual level of accuracy — GAMA is wholly dependent on the data the organization received from various CAAs in each country — GAMA’s data is some very useful info and I am in their debt for the information discussed in this review. In addition to GAMA having to use whatever each country reported, the methods of reporting were not consistent. For one noteworthy example, several countries listed as their smallest aircraft those weighing 5,700 kilograms (12,540 pounds), which represents far larger aircraft than your typical four-seat GA aircraft and certainly any recreational aircraft.

LSA Market Shares — Fleet and Calendar 2014

By Dan Johnson || March 22, 2015 2 Comments

Image of Searey in flight by Searey Canada.

As spring approaches and with major airshows like Aero Friedrichshafen in Germany and Sun 'n Fun in Florida about to trigger a new season of recreational flying, it is time for an annual update of Light-Sport Aircraft market shares. Our well-known "fleet" chart appears nearby; this table refers to all Special LSA registered with FAA in the United States since the first aircraft was accepted by FAA almost ten years ago (on April 5, 2005). We again post our Calendar 2014 tally that shows the success only in that year as a means of drawing attention to those brands and models performing the best in the last twelve months. We remind you that these charts use as their source the FAA registration (N-number) database, that is then carefully studied and corrected to make the most reliable report possible. However, two points: (1) this report will still have some errors as the database on which we rely has some faulty information ... though we believe this to be modest and, as noted, we correct it where we can; and, (2) aircraft registrations are not likely to be perfectly in sync with company records of sales for a variety of reasons. Other organizations ask companies to report deliveries and this, too, can have weaknesses, but we stand by our chart and the text report as the most factual details we can locate. It is also worth noting that we only attempt to tally the Top-20 for ranking yet we draw your attention to the "All Other Producers" category that, by itself, represents the largest segment at 15.7% or about one in six aircraft. Further, we repeat the chart notes that these figures are only fixed-wing airplanes, which leaves out weight shift, powered parachutes, gliders, gyroplanes, and other worthy categories. We wish to include them but the information has proven too unreliable so in the interest of the most accuracy we can report, we regretfully omit these interesting aircraft. As you can see from the nearby Calendar Year 2014 Report, CubCrafters again lead the field. They have done well for several years, however, the most notable movement of the year was from worldwide kit airplane manufacturer, Van's Aircraft who works with Synergy Air to build ready-to-fly RV-12s. Seemingly overnight, Van's appeared on our fleet chart and rocketed up to the #13 spot. Given the Van's RV-series popularity and the existence of a large number of RV-12 kits, it seems clear Van's will overtake several other producers in the years ahead and rise to near the top of the chart. More on that below. Another up and comer, not even on last year's fleet chart, is Progressive Aerodyne's Seayrey amphibian SLSA. Over many years this company has delivered more than 600 kit versions of its amphib. They won FAA audit approval to make SLSA models in late 2013 and went right to work filling demand. They've also won Chinese TDA approval and may break into that market, which many expect to explode. Clearly, Searey is leading the charge on LSA seaplanes even while some other interesting designs go through design and production exercises. Regular top players such as Flight Design, Tecnam, Aerotrek, American Legend, Czech Sport Aircraft, and Pipistrel — some of the top and best-established brands — also fared well in 2014. Yet another appearing for the first time is Quicksilver Aeronautics. They won FAA audit approval to sell SLSA versions of their immensely popular kit aircraft in late 2014 and notched up their first Special LSA sales. The company can boast more than 15,000 kit aircraft flying. A couple other honorable mentions go to Bristell (BRM Aero), which though new, is seeing good interest; Sling, which is rising and has a four seater kit to offer as well; and deluxe motorglider Phoenix. Their numbers were not big but these companies are ones to watch, we believe. Others holding up their brands include Evektor with its sleeker Harmony, Aeroprakt, and Jabiru (the last went through a manufacturing evolution and can offer even better pricing). As we show an image of the handsome Van's RV-12, we want to bring your attention to the small print alongside the Van's rank. This company, known for their kit-making prowess — with more than 9,000 delivered and flying — has registered 314 kit versions of RV-12 for a total impact of 364 aircraft. Were we to combine these, they would vault to second place, ready to challenge longtime leader Flight Design for the largest LSA fleet in the country. You may also note that our chart this year, for the first time, incorporates a number for "identifiable" kits, either as Experimental LSA (ELSA) or Experimental Amateur Built (EAB) models. The figure we felt we could correctly identify amounted to 797 airplanes (again ... no weight shift, powered parachutes, or gyros), which represent an additional 29%. If we could gather reliable details on the WS, PPC, and gyro fleet, we might add another 25% or so. Based on the greater EAB community in the USA, kit LSA aircraft may begin to add significant numbers and if we can tally them accurately we will continue to reference them. As we consider Searey's strong performance in 2014, we again note that this is a company that cut its teeth with kit production. Over 600 have been sold and more than 500 are reportedly flying. Searey kit owners make a very strong and closeknit group of seaplane pilots with one of the largest amphibious populations anywhere. As most readers will know, we can expect several other interesting seaplanes in the years ahead, from companies like Icon, MVP, and Vickers plus others. We are also aware of several other landplane LSA designs in the works and then will come electric aircraft (assuming FAA can find a way to invite these aircraft into the LSA fleet, which unfortunately is far from certain at this time). Yet all we present above is only the American market. The USA may be the largest single market but the rest of the world invites comparison to the famous 80/20 rule. The USA has roughly 20% of all recreational aircraft but other countries are excellent markets for lower-cost, fuel efficient, and modern airplanes. When we add them all, using powerplant production as a measuring stick, we believe the total market for light aircraft exceeded 3,000 airplanes in 2014. With GAMA reporting 986 single engine piston general aviation aircraft for the same year, it is clear the light aircraft segment is substantially larger and for these aircraft, we believe the global future is bright.

As spring approaches and with major airshows like Aero Friedrichshafen in Germany and Sun ‘n Fun in Florida about to trigger a new season of recreational flying, it is time for an annual update of Light-Sport Aircraft market shares. Our well-known “fleet” chart appears nearby; this table refers to all Special LSA registered with FAA in the United States since the first aircraft was accepted by FAA almost ten years ago (on April 5, 2005). We again post our Calendar 2014 tally that shows the success only in that year as a means of drawing attention to those brands and models performing the best in the last twelve months. We remind you that these charts use as their source the FAA registration (N-number) database, that is then carefully studied and corrected to make the most reliable report possible. However, two points: (1) this report will still have some errors as the database on which we rely has some faulty information … though we believe this to be modest and, as noted, we correct it where we can; and, (2) aircraft registrations are not likely to be perfectly in sync with company records of sales for a variety of reasons.

Evaluating the Worldwide Impact of Sport Aircraft

By Dan Johnson || January 28, 2015 Leave a Comment

As the new year dawned my good friends at General Aviation News published my article on the light aircraft industry using Rotax deliveries (and estimates of other engine brands) to estimate worldwide sales of recreational or sport aircraft. The article was presented online as 2015 began and has since appeared in a print edition. This article was updated 1/12/15 and 1/23/15. On the "The Pulse of Aviation" (sign up here; it's free) you can read my article that generated a large number of reader comments, some of which were quite colorful. •A technical glitch that took down the comments has been fixed and you can again peruse the many comments.• GA News is published 26 times a year (subscribe here) and the article was just released in the print version. Online, a few responders apparently didn't think much of LSA with some relying on outdated information. Several others were very supportive. That's the value of free speech and comment sections that permit such open exchanges in the Internet Age.

Here I present a somewhat different message. The first article was aimed at an audience including general aviation pilots, many of whom do not know the LSA or light kit community well. This one is aimed at those following light aviation more closely. As detailed in the GA News article, I reported a market for very light aircraft and Light-Sport-type aircraft that substantially exceeds 3,000 units per year worldwide. Many American pilots remain unaware that the rest of the world flies a large number of light aircraft in the recreational or sporting categories. Overseas, these are commonly referred to as Ultralights or Microlights, Very Light Aircraft, or Light-Sport Aircraft. As you probably know Euro Ultralights are quite different from the U.S. version. Most pilots in the USA focus on what are sometimes called "traditional" general aviation aircraft for which GAMA has reported delivery numbers for many years. Regular tallies of FAA's N-number registration database show that in the USA the ratio is approximately 80/20, traditional GA airplanes to recreational aircraft. In Europe and most other countries that ratio is reversed with GA representing approximately 20% of all civilian aircraft with 80% recreational, according to people who try to assess such figures. This large percentage includes gliders (very big in Europe) but even omitting sailplanes the ratio is quite lopsided in favor of powered recreational aircraft. For most international pilots, GA aircraft are too expensive to buy and operate outside the USA.

"From 1989 through June 5th, 2014, we have sold 50,000 four-stroke engines of the 912 and 914 model designation," noted Christian Mundigler, Key Account Manager of Rotax Aircraft Engine Sales. "On the two-stroke engine side we sold all together more than 120,000 units up to now," he said. These deliveries show Rotax is surely the most prolific producer of engines, but Continental, Jabiru, and Lycoming add powerplants used on recreational aircraft. Assuming their output is about 600 units per year — likely a conservative estimate and only considering production for the light aircraft sector — we calculate the UL/LSA/VLA sector probably reaches beyond 3,500 airframes per year.

In comparison, GAMA will likely report less than 1,100 piston-powered aircraft of all types and sizes from all association members around the globe for 2014 based on information released for the first nine months of the year. Thus, when you include shipments to all countries, the light recreational aircraft market represents a large portion of all civilian, non-commercial airplanes being delivered. With the American LSA and light kit market taking less than 1,000 of the Rotax's annual 3,000-plus aircraft engine production, where are all the others going? "Averaging over a long term our main engine market, including two- and four-stroke powerplants, Europe has around half of the share," reported Mundigler. "The Americas, including North, Central, and South, has about a third of the total." "Growing markets are Russia and China with double digit increase rates in recent years," said Mundigler. Rotax engines run fine on auto gasoline or 100LL aviation fuel; operators can mix mogas and avgas in any proportion without concern. Jabiru also works fine with mogas and Continental has engine models that do as well. Around the world, aviation fuel is not widely available and, as American pilots know, avgas carries a substantial price premium though much less than the $10-12 per gallon in Europe. From the figures used in this article, we can see the light, recreational aircraft industry is alive and well and makes up the largest unit volume share of all aircraft delivered each year.

As the new year dawned my good friends at General Aviation News published my article on the light aircraft industry using Rotax deliveries (and estimates of other engine brands) to estimate worldwide sales of recreational or sport aircraft. The article was presented online as 2015 began and has since appeared in a print edition. This article was updated 1/12/15 and 1/23/15. On the “The Pulse of Aviation” (sign up here; it’s free) you can read my article that generated a large number of reader comments, some of which were quite colorful. •A technical glitch that took down the comments has been fixed and you can again peruse the many comments.• GA News is published 26 times a year (subscribe here) and the article was just released in the print version. Online, a few responders apparently didn’t think much of LSA with some relying on outdated information.

Germany’s Top 10 Ultralights by Aerokurier

By Dan Johnson || September 26, 2014 8 Comments

Much of what we hear and know about airplane populations is centered on America. Yet in the world of sport and recreational aviation, the rest of the world equates to at least a 1:1 relationship, that is, for every American aircraft flying, many experts agree another flies internationally. It may be more significant than that ... consider Germany. In mid-August, our friends at Aerokurier, Germany's leading aviation magazine, assembled an article about the top 10 ultralights in that country. A European ultralight, as you may know, is not the same as an American ultralight that is today limited to a single seat and no more than 254 pounds of empty weight. In Germany and elsewhere around the European Union, "ultralight" refers to an airplane much like a U.S. Light-Sport but limited in weight to 472.5 kilograms or 1,041 pounds. Originally the weight limit had been 450 kilograms or 992 pounds but because emergency airframe parachutes are mandatory in Germany the weight was increased a few years ago to cover this component. In the following article, we present Aerokurier's article translated by computer and edited for English readers. Any errors from the original are ours. Following Aerokurier's description is our added commentary. We hope you enjoy this glance at the very active sport flying community in Germany. We'll do this in style of TV host David Letterman's Top-10, starting with #10 and working up to #1. According to sanctioned organizations (DaEC & DULV) tasked with administrating and registering ultralights in Germany, 2,257 airplanes comprise the country's Top-10. This number is equivalent to our market share charts that show entire fleet size over the life of the category. The numbers below do not describe annual sales.

#10 — Evektor Eurostar (94 flying) — Built by Evektor in Kunovice, Czech Republic, Eurostar is a versatile all-metal low-wing aircraft recommended for travel, training, and towing. Regular model updates ensure that the Eurostar does not look old today. Under the model name Sportstar RTC, the aircraft is also available as EASA-certified LSA [under EU rules called CS-LSA]. |||| Americans know Sportstar and now Harmony as a leading LSA company ranked at #9. Sportstar was the very first LSA to win FAA acceptance back in 2005. This highly refined aircraft has worked well as a trainer and a cross country traveler.

#9 — AeroSpool Dynamic (97 flying) — It's fast and belongs to the ultralight beauties at the sky. Built in Slovakia WT9 Dynamic is the epitome of a sporty composite low-wing monoplane. Capable of more than 200 km/h (125 mph) it excels at cross country flying, is comfortable, and can even tow gliders. Dynamic's flight characteristics are exemplary processing. |||| Dynamic in fixed gear form has some U.S. models flying but after Sport Aircraft Works left the business sales slowed to a stop and it never entered the Top-20 of the American LSA market.

#8 — P92 (147 flying) — Tecnam supplies the P92, a real bestseller. The all-metal high wing is offered in several variants [including floatplane and taildragger]. These products range from the spartan-equipped light version for schools and clubs through to one fitted for luxurious airplane travel. One thing they all have in common: their flight characteristics are perfectly smooth and its structure is considered indestructible. |||| Italian giant Tecnam has sold P92 for 25 years and has examples all over the world. The company, with multiple LSA accepted by FAA, is ranked #6 in the American LSA market though that does not include their certified Twin that uses a pair of Rotax 912s. In early 2014, Tecnam opened a facility in Sebring, Florida along with an customer-friendly deposit program (only 10% due until delivery is ready) that seems sure to increase their market position.

#7 — Kiebitz (151 flying) — The biplane from designer Michael Platzer has a huge following in Germany. Hardly any other ultralight gives so much fun flying in an open cockpit. To win this jewel, owners must either build it or seek one from the used market. Only plans and individual parts are offered, however, for many the effort is worthwhile. |||| Kiebitz has no U.S. market presence yet given the interest in vintage designs like the many Cubalikes, perhaps some interest can develop. On the other hand, Americans already have many choices in the world of homebuilt vintage aircraft so we may never see a Kiebitz in the USA.

#6 — Remos GX (166 flying) — Remos Aircraft started in the mid-1990s with the introduction of its composite high wing G-3 that became popular with many ultralight pilots. Professionally produced and easy to fly this ultralight earned an excellent reputation in the industry. Several years ago, the company offered an updated GX version, which was proceeding toward European LSA approval [a more complicated and costly process than in the USA]. After a difficult time in recent years, production restarted in 2013. |||| Even after stalling badly following a tremendous promotional push, Remos still owns the #7 spot in the American LSA ranking, although reports of added financial challenge continue to dog the company. The airplane was marketed more heavily than any other LSA brand and won many happy customers.

#5 — FK 9 (202 flying) — With the FK 9 Peter and his father Otto Funk [who died in 2014] presented their first FK 9 at Aero 1989 as one of the first "cabin class" ultralights replacing earlier aircraft that were far more basic. Today, the high wing is a model of success that is enjoys great popularity with many clubs and flight schools in Germany. New model innovations ensure continued success in the market. Older models are on the second hand market remain extremely popular. Today, the aircraft is built by FK-Lightplanes in Poland. |||| FK 9 enjoys market presence and current representation by Hansen Air Group in the USA. Another popular model from this company is the folding-biwing aerobat, FK 12 Comet, and coming from FK Lightplanes and Hansen will be a rather fantastic 70% replica of the P-51 Mustang (video) that you have to see to believe; the detail work is simply amazing.

#4 — C22 (229 flying) — Germany's ultralight classic C22 has a loyal following to this day. Since the 1980s the model has stayed on the market and many still authorized aircraft remain active. From today's perspective, flight characteristics and comfort may seem rather spartan, but real ultralight fans love the original flying with the proven tube & Dacron construction from Comco Ikarus based in the south of Germany. [Note that Comco Ikarus also owns the #1 position in the market making this company Germany's clear leader after many years.] |||| No C22s are flying in the USA, nor has the German market leading C42 found many customers. The C22 is very similar to the Flightstar line popular for years in the USA and this entry in Germany's Top-10 listing is the only one faintly resembling what Yankees think of as an American ultralight. No attempt has been made to enter the U.S. with C22 and it probably would not succeed as we have a number of roughly comparable models.

#3 — CTLS (243 flying) — From generation to generation the CT series from Flight Design has become better. This cantilevered high wing, all-composite monoplane has established itself as a mature aircraft for travel, training, and glider towing. Thanks to the extra wide cabin and large fuel tanks, lengthy cross country flights are a pleasure. In both USA and in Europe as an EASA-certified holder of a Restricted Type Certificate (RTC), CT is a successful LSA with 600 kg (1,320 pound) maximum gross weight. |||| You know this one in the USA as the longtime and always market leader. Since the beginning of LSA in 2004, Flight Design's CT2K, CTSW, CTLS, and CTLSi have held the largest single market share, currently ranked #1 with 359 in our most recent market share report. At #3 in Germany and #1 in the USA plus a growing presence in China, the company enjoys a strong position.

#2 — MTO Sport (346 flying) — This gyroplane is a case of the right product at the right time. In 2004, when the first MT-03 was first built, CEO Otmar Birkner had no idea he would trigger a surprising boom with gyroplanes. Many pilots love to be in the open cockpit feel the wind in your hair and to experience the flying dynamics of an autogyro. Today AutoGyro from the north of Germany is the world's leader in the gyro business. The MT-03 and its successor MTO Sport end up together in second place in Germany's registration statistics. |||| AutoGyro and other gyro providers operate in America but as FAA cannot seem to overcome their own rules, these popular planes must be built as Experimental Amateur Built (the 51% rule). If FAA ever catches up with the trend, look for more gyros to be flying as Americans seems to like the fully enclosed two seaters in tandem and side by side form. Rotax reports that gyroplanes are the #1 buyers of Rotax 912 of any aircraft type in the world.

#1 — C42 (582 flying) — Germany's most popular ultralight comes from the south of Germany. C42 by Comco Ikarus secures first place with 582 licensed copies of this tube & Dacron, high wing monoplane. It has been refined repeatedly over the years and currently the manufacturer produces three versions: C42A, C42B and C42C. The aircraft is very easy to use and is widely used by flying clubs and their flight schools. |||| The clear king of ultralights in Germany has 70% more aircraft registered than the number two producer and represents more than 25% of Germany's Top-10, a stronger position than even the top two U.S. LSA producers put together. While Comco Ikarus has attempted to gain an American foothold, exhibiting at big events such as AirVenture in past years, the company has never found either the right representation nor market reception, though admittedly the U.S. market is crowded with great competition for customer attention. As you can see, the Germany and American markets have their differences but also enjoy great similarity. Germany is one of the very strongest light aircraft markets outside the U.S., trailed in approximate order by the Czech Republic, France, Britain, Spain, Italy and others. The American market remains the world's largest for light aircraft of all types, but in the world of sport and recreation is closely trailed by other countries.

The Next Decade of Light-Sport & Sport Pilot

By Dan Johnson || September 2, 2014 Leave a Comment

engineering artwork prepared by Jaro Dostal

In July I posted an article about an AOPA survey conducted through the biggest member organization's daily newsletter, eBrief (sign-up page). That provided a broad glimpse into both the mind of an AOPA eBrief reader (and responder) but might also be used to forecast some possibilities for the LSA industry. In this article, I'm going to again use the survey data but look at such information in a different manner. I suspect LSA business people will read this with interest but it may be meaningful to any pilot interested in buying or partnering their way into a LSA or in finding a Light-Sport Aircraft available for students and others to fly at flight schools and FBOs around the country. LSA are by no means limited to the USA, of course, so I'll also make some informed guesses about what I see as the global aspect to the LSA development, now beginning its second decade*. Let's do a bit of number review to help put this in context. AOPA reports about 400,000 members, making it by far the largest pilot membership organization in the world. Let's be conservative and say only about 300,000 are active or interested in being active. (I hope the number is not this small, but I prefer to err on the side of caution in this review.) As the nearby chart shows, 12.59% of eBrief readers say they are now flying while using the privileges of the Sport Pilot certificate. While 26.4% said they were not interested in sport pilot, the largest single group responding said they could envision themselves flying as a sport pilot in the future. The two affirmative answers total 73.6 percent. I stress that these numbers come from eBrief readers and may not mirror all AOPA member opinions. However, assuming the sample size was large enough to be valid — for reference, surveys of about 1,000 are commonly used to sample the entire U.S. population — then this eBrief survey might mean the following. Assuming 300,000 "active" AOPA members, 12.59% of them represents 37,770 members. The future figure 61.01% would represent 183,030, and the two numbers sum to 220,800 members. Based on FAA registration data, we know 37,700 do not presently own a LSA nor a compatible kit aircraft nor a parameter-meeting Standard Category airplane but aircraft ownership was not the question posed. However, whether they own them or someone else does, that many pilots could be flying LSA or LSA-like aircraft that do not require a medical. Apparently many more are intrigued by flying modern, fuel-efficient, and superbly equipped LSA or other aircraft that don't require a medical. Note that beside fully built Special LSA, Sport Pilot certificate holders may fly Standard Category aircraft or homebuilt aircraft so long as those flying machines meet the parameters (1,320 pound gross weight; speed less than 120 knots, etc.). Thus, available aircraft include SLSA, ELSA, Experimental kit-built aircraft, or other Sport Pilot-eligible aircraft beyond LSA. If at some time 220,800 AOPA members are interested in flying as a sport pilot, how many might one day consider buying a new or used Light-Sport Aircraft? This question is far fuzzier so let's soberly reduce the numbers. We can guess that only one in ten of those (or 22,080) are truly interested to buy a LSA. Of that group, we can estimate only one in six of potential buyers (3,680 or 1.67% of interested members) will act on that interest. If it took ten years to fulfill such market potential, that averages 368 aircraft per year. Based on the first decade of LSA, this figure is certainly achieveable; the industry can safely produce this number ... indeed, has produced many more in the years before the Great Recession. Are these assumptions reasonable? Who knows? The GA industry sells more single-engine piston aircraft per year so those numbers certainly aren't beyond belief when considering the potential large interest from AOPA members as reflected by responses to the eBrief survey. For LSA producers, the estimates above are only part of the story. In the sport or recreational aircraft world, the USA is not the dominant market. It is surely the largest single-nation market but the rest of the world easily accounts for at least 1:1, that is, for every sport aircraft sold in America, at least one may be sold in some other country (though we lack hard evidence of this). As LSA are presently accepted in several other nations with more to follow, the 1:1 ratio remains conservative, I feel. Thus, 368 U.S.-delivered aircraft could translate to 736 aircraft sold globally each year for the second decade of Sport Pilot / Light-Sport Aircraft. Will this occur? The only sure way to know is to ask again in 2024 but my speculation using the AOPA eBrief survey numbers is that the future for LSA remains bright. * The SP/LSA rule was announced July 20, 2004 but the first aircraft were not FAA accepted then delivered to customers until April of 2005. So, LSA will only reach their first full decade completed by Sun 'n Fun 2015.

In July I posted an article about an AOPA survey conducted through the biggest member organization’s daily newsletter, eBrief (sign-up page). That provided a broad glimpse into both the mind of an AOPA eBrief reader (and responder) but might also be used to forecast some possibilities for the LSA industry. In this article, I’m going to again use the survey data but look at such information in a different manner. I suspect LSA business people will read this with interest but it may be meaningful to any pilot interested in buying or partnering their way into a LSA or in finding a Light-Sport Aircraft available for students and others to fly at flight schools and FBOs around the country. LSA are by no means limited to the USA, of course, so I’ll also make some informed guesses about what I see as the global aspect to the LSA development, now beginning its second decade*.

2013 Light-Sport Market Share Report & Analysis

By Dan Johnson || May 21, 2014 Leave a Comment

As always, we remind you that all numbers here are derived from FAA's N-number registration database and are subject to data entry errors. Figures presented are not identical to sales recorded by the companies though over time the numbers draw closer.

This chart, created by Jan Fridrich for a presentation at Aero in Germany, shows trend lines for several categories. While LSA continue to slump, some see this as the "bottom" and reported order taking over the last 18 months supports future improvement. Of interest is the brown line for German and Czech ultralights or microlights (similar though slightly lighter than U.S. LSA). Note its volume similarity to LSA and the steadiness of the line throughout the economic downturn from 2008 to 2012. Germany and the Czech Republic are two of the most active countries in Europe.

UPDATE: May 27, 2014 — "A vigorous debate ensued ..." might be one way to refer to a four-way discussion from around the globe. Over the last few days, LSA industry folks in distant lands worked on market share details. Michael Coates is the Australian-based U.S. distributor for Pipistrel, an aircraft fabricated in Slovenia and assembled as a LSA in nearby Italy for shipment to the USA. My Czech-based associate, Jan Fridrich, was in China again because his country works with that nation as they build a personal aviation sector virtually from scratch. From our corners of the world we tried to resolve a problem that regularly occurs in our study of the FAA registration database. Pipistrel maintained their SLSA airplane numbers were stronger. Jan and I communicated and finally agreed that we were underreporting their numbers. The chart below has been modified to reflect a truer situation, sharply moving Pipistrel upward from 20th to 14th rank. Essentially, the problem stems from some Pipistrel aircraft being registered as "gliders," which is one of those categories Jan and I do not feel we can consistently count with accuracy. After Jan studied the database we chose to update the chart with the understanding that our next reporting may see another minor adjustment. As with many statistical evaluations, these reviews often get better as the survey gets larger over a longer period of time. Meanwhile, congratulations to Pipistel for improving their standing ... and for informing us. If other sellers believe their registrations are reported in error, we'd like to hear about it so we can do our best to deliver quality, accurate information. —DJ We are past due for a market share update and several of you have written to ask. As most readers know, I create my report from information assembled by my LAMA associate and friend Jan Fridrich who puts hours into the tedious duty of sifting through FAA's database. It isn't only time consuming, exacting work. He must also make many determinations as FAA's database is not always clear as to model types or other descriptions. As many of you are aware, we do not report weight shift, powered parachutes, gyros, or motorgliders as those are aircraft types we cannot accurately count. I wish we could report those "alternative aircraft" — doing so would make the totals more reflective of the true LSA market — but we cannot. Jan has also been unusually busy going to many meetings ... the kind you would not care to attend: long, dry meetings in various countries where regulators and industry leaders go over rules in excruciating detail. Someone has to do it and I'm thankful for people like Jan who endure these sessions. For this reason, I was unwilling to push harder for his study of the database. However, he has done it again so a hearty THANK YOU, JAN FRIDRICH for your dedication to this industry. As I've written and as many are aware 2013 was not a strong year for SLSA registrations. It was an improved year for sales but after so many down-economy years manufacturers had reduced their manufacturing capacity — achieved by releasing employees, employing less manufacturing floor space, maintaining smaller raw material inventories, keeping fewer engines on hand and so forth. So, when sales mounted a comeback in 2013, builders were unable to keep up. Backlogs stretch out to a year for some companies. That may improve in 2014 as they cautiously increase their rates of production but meanwhile several companies tell customers it can be several to many months before a new order will be available to them. So far first quarter numbers for 2014 continue to reflect these delays but I have received several comments that new LSA are beginning to arrive more regularly. Cessna, as one notable example, slipped from second to third and will continue moving lower now that they halted production. Their exit alone caused a drop in the totals. Yet others, like Icon Aircraft, will eventually hit the chart and move up as they begin to deliver from their list of 1,000+ customers holding order positions. One industry expert told me, "My input [is] that 2013 will be the bottom of the LSA market, which means there is nowhere to go but up. If you counted all ELSA 2013 was really pretty decent, with RV-12 leading the pack. CubCrafters' order book is very healthy, too." To that I add the following thought ... Entire LSA Market — I want to refer you to a different market report I issued earlier and note that besides weight shift, powered parachutes, gyros, or motorgliders, we also do not report ELSA (kit LSA). Again, the data entry process is difficult for FAA clerks because so many makes and models are present to confuse those less involved with the sector. Experimental Amateur Built aircraft can be flown by Sport Pilots and are sometimes incorrectly called Light-Sport. ELSA may receive their airworthiness certificate only if they are identical to the SLSA version accepted by FAA, however, afterward they can change. With 136 SLSA models, it doesn't surprise me that errors creep into the database but for our charts to make sense year-over-year, we report only the most identifiable group: Special LSA airplanes. Yet this means that to know the whole market size you must add a substantial, growing percentage (as much as 50% more) to include those other aircraft. Chart Explanations & Disclaimer — If you compare numbers from one year to the next, you may see changes you cannot explain. For example, a company's numbers can go down if, for example, aircraft are taken out of service due to theft, damage, or sale outside the USA, which means they may be removed from FAA's database. Some companies in the USA also distribute to Canada or Mexico and LSA going to those countries will not be counted in our chart even while they rightly call them a sale. Comparing "Total" Figures — Rob Rollison of Aerotrek, besides doing a steady job of selling his reasonably priced A220s and A240s, often comments that our chart numbers do not perfectly reflect all SLSA that his company has registered. If a LSA is destroyed, by a hangar collapsing on it let's say, that aircraft will eventually come off the FAA database making it appear that it was never sold. Thus, FAA's current registry does not fully state the total registrations that ever occurred. "If Model A Ford cars were in some current U.S. registry, we'd see 50 of these antiques today, not the millions Ford once sold," noted Rob. He is correct; our chart (and FAA's database) does not include every SLSA ever registered. Counting all of them would make the total somewhat larger. However, we stick to our same methods in the interest of keeping our chart consistent through the years even though it undervalues the industry's true sales. As further explanation, you can see the chart shows 76 Aerotreks models in the FAA database. Rob has provided an exact accounting of every U.S. registration he ever made and his figure is at least 83, though he notes four were damaged and some others transitioned to ELSA status, which suggests our reported figures are very close. Until we can collect actual — and honest, valid — sales data from all manufacturers, our chart is the one we present. The market is truly larger than either chart suggests. We appreciate if all readers keep this in mind when studying the LSA Market Share Chart.

UPDATE: May 27, 2014 — “A vigorous debate ensued …” might be one way to refer to a four-way discussion from around the globe. Over the last few days, LSA industry folks in distant lands worked on market share details. Michael Coates is the Australian-based U.S. distributor for Pipistrel, an aircraft fabricated in Slovenia and assembled as a LSA in nearby Italy for shipment to the USA. My Czech-based associate, Jan Fridrich, was in China again because his country works with that nation as they build a personal aviation sector virtually from scratch. From our corners of the world we tried to resolve a problem that regularly occurs in our study of the FAA registration database. Pipistrel maintained their SLSA airplane numbers were stronger. Jan and I communicated and finally agreed that we were underreporting their numbers. The chart below has been modified to reflect a truer situation, sharply moving Pipistrel upward from 20th to 14th rank.

The “Real” LSA Market & Future Growth

By Dan Johnson || February 24, 2014 Leave a Comment

In talks I give at airshows, I've begun to focus on what I term the "real" LSA market. Many folks are confused and even our ByDanJohnson.com statistics and articles about market share ranking add to the fog obscuring the big picture. The chart below attempts to burn off that fog and provide a clearer understanding. However, the table — meant for use when I proceeded line by line in a live presentation — needs some explanations. The chart attempts two tricks. The first goal was to contrast general aviation (GA) with Light-Sport aviation. We compare only to single engine piston GA aircraft as we saw that as the closest match. So the chart has at top left, a figure of 790, which is the number of Type Certified general aviation aircraft delivered in 2012, the latest full year of information at the time of the chart's creation. Come down one line to see the total of Special LSA airplanes registered in 2012, again noting that LSA report registrations where the GA industry states deliveries; these two stats are not identical but are close enough for the purposes of this discussion. As you can see, the industry registered 259 aircraft. The term "Ratio" relates 259 to 790, showing LSA registrations to be about a third of GA single engine piston aircraft delivery. The term "Share" means the LSA portion of the sum of 790 + 259 or 1,049 total single engine piston aircraft. Secondly, however, SLSA "airplanes" are not all the "aircraft" in the LSA fleet. "Airplanes" refer to fixed wing, three axis ... basically more conventional aircraft. "Alternative LSA" refers to weight shift, powered parachute, gyroplane, and glider categories that add more registrations. We do not include the latter group in our market share rankings as the FAA database on these aircraft are suspect. The reason is the many different models and names and a general lack of database entry clerk awareness of them coupled with registration applications that likely confuse those clerks with different naming conventions. For example, a trike with a different wing is a somewhat different model but could use the same or a different name. Powered parachutes can be equally baffling to the uninitiated. Even though we can't count them reliably (so we skip them, with regrets to those enthusiasts), they are real and they are being sold. They add an average of another 50 or more SLSA per year, which represents a bit over 6% of all GA aircraft sold. Then, we have to add ELSA or Experimental (not factory built) LSA. More are coming but Van's Aircraft's RV-12 presently dominates this field, having registered 203 units by the end of 2012. All told, ELSA add an average of 74 units per year, which is nearly 10% of all general aviation single engine pistons delivered. Sum these groups and you have an estimated 383 registrations of LSA types in 2012, a figure that is nearly half of the GA single engine pistons and a third of all aircraft manufactured in 2012. Yet, as the late night infomercials boast, "That's still not all!" Adding to the total of LSA aircraft are many former two seat ultralights that were registered as a kind of special ELSA during a grace period. That period ended some years ago, so no more will be added, but we estimate that at least 4,500 examples are still flying. Add them all and you see more than 8,000 Light-Sport Aircraft, which accounts for about 5% of the entire single engine piston fleet in the USA ... but that still doesn't fully describe the sector. We finish the picture by noting that many Experimental Amateur Built (the so-called 51% rule airplanes) can be flown by someone possessing a Sport Pilot certificate or using a higher certificate without a medical to operate as a Sport Pilot. We don't provide an estimate, but cautiously call this "thousands" more. Many people call these "Light-Sport Aircraft" but they are not; they are EABs. Likewise some folks still call the Sport Pilot certificate a "Light-Sport license," which is an incorrect term. We prefer to call these "Sport Pilot-eligible" aircraft using a phrase coined by EAA staffer Ron Wagner. We hope the chart above helps to clarify the true size of the LSA market. Remember, these figures only refer to the United States. Many thousands more fly in other countries. Next, let's look to the future. The graphical chart comes from Barr Group Aerospace. Chart lovers can find many more at this website focused on general aviation (most of the info is for larger, working aircraft). The following chart shows the history — including the plunge from 2007 figures to the depths of 2010, a slide of greater than 50%. It also gazes into a crystal ball and attempts to show future trends. Right or wrong, the view of the statisticians behind this chart suggests a strong role for Light-Sport Aircraft at about 23% of all aircraft including jets and Experimentals. Jets are expected to grow as are Experimentals. It looks less rosy for piston and turboprop perhaps as LSA and EABs will capture some of these sales. Then, we have to contemplate the arrival of a new wave of four seat or larger aircraft from the flock of non-legacy companies currently building two seat LSA ... but that's a story for another article.

In talks I give at airshows, I’ve begun to focus on what I term the “real” LSA market. Many folks are confused and even our ByDanJohnson.com statistics and articles about market share ranking add to the fog obscuring the big picture. The chart below attempts to burn off that fog and provide a clearer understanding. However, the table — meant for use when I proceeded line by line in a live presentation — needs some explanations. The chart attempts two tricks. The first goal was to contrast general aviation (GA) with Light-Sport aviation. We compare only to single engine piston GA aircraft as we saw that as the closest match. So the chart has at top left, a figure of 790, which is the number of Type Certified general aviation aircraft delivered in 2012, the latest full year of information at the time of the chart’s creation. Come down one line to see the total of Special LSA airplanes registered in 2012, again noting that LSA report registrations where the GA industry states deliveries; these two stats are not identical but are close enough for the purposes of this discussion.

Update on the 2013 LSA Marketplace

By Dan Johnson || December 31, 2013 Leave a Comment

At least aviation is not bowling! Recent articles say the number of American bowlers has plummeted from nine million to two million, a drop of 78%. Compared to that the aviation industry looks far more durable (line chart). Indeed, aviation in all sectors is facing challenges but we are buoyed by reports in the same newspapers that say Americans are feeling more financially secure since stock markets are up substantially and houses are selling faster and at better prices. However, as we'll show below, 2013 is one of those transition years. That means that sales have been occurring at an increased pace, but due to companies assuming a defensive posture in the 2007-2011 downturn, production is now lagging behind sales just as it was in 2005-2006 when LSA burst on the scene. I'm optimistic that 2014 is going to be a much stronger year. I am not the only one. "I feel we will be experiencing two significant growth years in 2014 and 2015 based on the continued aging of the pilot population and the pent-up demand in the marketplace," said Tim Casey, Garmin's sales manager for portables, LSA, and experimental aircraft markets. In his role for the big avionics maker, Tim keeps a very close eye on the industry. "Combine that with the activity surrounding the Part 23 re-write and it appears we may be approaching an inflection point in the market," added Casey. The biggest single change in the LSA market numbers is that Cessna appears to have thrown in the towel on Skycatcher (article). Whatever the corporate decision may ultimately be, the fact is that Cessna registered zero Skycatchers in the first nine months of 2013. In all of 2012 ... 94. Remove the "Cessna variable" and you might say LSA registrations are up in 2013 (though that analysis might have too much "sunshine" for some readers). To be honest, the numbers still look weak though fortunately some bright spots exist. Two brands — CubCrafters and Van's — are game changers. As noted Van's has elected to take its popular RV-12 more deeply into fully built SLSA. In the same part of the country, CubCrafters is again showing great strength. Plus, several of our top suppliers remain very active even if their registration numbers look light. One company said they'd made more than 30 sales yet registered only a quarter of them, all in 2013. As the engines of production accelerate around the USA and world, we can see rising currents of air in the industry. Unlike in years past, the U.S.-based manufacturers in particular seem ready to lift more pilots aloft. Hoping for a much improved 2014 and 2015 and focusing on the companies that did enjoy a good first nine months of 2013, we tick off the top performers. Once again, the LSA pack is lead — very convincingly — by CubCrafters with a solid 40 new registrations in nine months. Calculating forward, the Yakima company should hit 53 aircraft registered, boosting last year's good performance by another 10%. At this rate, CubCrafters will pass Cessna and give Flight Design its greatest challenge so far. Congratulation to Jim Richmond's CubCrew! In the first nine months of 2013, CubCrafters is trailed at some distance by SportCruiser logging 13 registrations and American Legend with 12. Both performances are good; U.S. Sport Aircraft has maintained admirable sales consistency even through the down years and Legend bounced back from some soft years of late. Another top brand that is reviving nicely is Tecnam with 10 registrations in the first nine months of 2013. Please remember, all numbers are derived from the FAA registration database and are rarely in perfect sync with a company's sales activity; over time, these differences find equilibrium. A notch back but still finding good performance in a sluggish economy is Pipistrel, which logged eight registrations and finally arrived in the Top 20 List. Flight Design added seven registrations but is one of those companies reporting much better sales albeit with delivery lags slowing their entry to the FAA database. Tied with Flight Design is Aerotrek. For this company, the figures represent another good performance; they ranked third in 2012 registrations, now move into the Top 10, and have generally been a model of consistent sales. Producer Aeropro takes a conservative approach and can only allocate a limited number of their production to the USA (England is presently hot for them). Phoenix Air USA, importer of the gorgeous motorglider of the same name registered three and has also had to learn patience with the manufacturer's cautious delivery pace. In 2013, the refrain has been that sales are up from 2011 and 2012 but deliveries are not keeping up, a situation that should improve as builders sense better economic conditions. Finally, remember that many producers sell elsewhere in the world. ByDanJohnson.com is now read 31% by pilots not residing in the USA and this helps to show the global effect LSA is enjoying. So, as 2013 closes, we wish all readers a HAPPY NEW YEAR ... we think it is going to be a good one! Notice: As always, we observe for you that all numbers here are derived from FAA's N-number registration database and are subject to data entry errors. Figures presented are not identical to sales recorded by the companies though over time the numbers draw closer.

Why LSA Registrations are Down in 2013

By Dan Johnson || October 15, 2013 Leave a Comment

CubCrafters has steadily moved upward in fleet size and has enjoyed two strong years in 2012 and 2013.

The future remains bright for Light-Sport Aircraft with interesting designs in the pipeline, improved models from well-known builders, and a wide price range able to suit most budgets. Importantly, the safety record remains good. Pictured is Terrafugia's proposed TF-X.

A number of you have asked about an updated sales report for 2013. While remembering that we report registrations not sales, this year has been a different sort. Registrations are down from 2012, with the exception that CubCrafters remains the registration (and presumably sales) leader. American Legend and their Cubs are also showing more activity than previous years. Beyond the yellow taildragger squadron, it's something of a mixed bag. More on that below. ••• Let me offer you another statistic that amazes me while speaking to ever-growing interest in Light-Sport Aircraft and light kit aircraft that Sport Pilots may fly. In September, ByDanJohnson.com set an all-time record with 71,400 Unique Visitors, 25% higher than our previous record (July 2013). In 2013, Unique Visitors have averaged more than 35,000 per month, a figure more than double 2012, which had been our best year ever. If I appear to be bragging too loudly, let me say that I believe this website is merely the messenger and that it is a fleet of great LSA and a solid team of suppliers and service providers that is delivering visitor growth. People are flocking to ByDanJohnson.com because, I believe, LSA and Sport Pilot-eligible kits and other aircraft are THE growth area for aviation. Thanks to less obtrusive regulations and greater design freedom, this sector is where innovation shines at (relatively) affordable cost. We thank you for stopping for a visit and we welcome you back often. If our website traffic is soaring and if LSA and SP-eligible kits and airplanes are the growth area, why are registrations off significantly in 2013? It's a valid question and I don't presume to have all the answers. However, I'd like to describe the history to help explain. At the dawn of SP/LSA, anticipation had grown to a fever pitch over this new class of airplane with its own pilot certificate. The lack of need for an aviation medical was a huge component, but it was more. General aviation manufacturers, hobbled by a frightfully expensive regulatory structure, were only rarely coming out with new airplanes and the cost of these aircraft was breathtaking (and still is ... a Cirrus SR22 can sell for more than $800,000!). FAA is finally acting to move toward industry consensus standards for GA aircraft and we think that will be helpful. Meanwhile the combined effort by AOPA and EAA to rid pilots of the need for a third class medical to fly certain larger airplanes appears completely stalled, even by the organizations' own statements, leaving LSA as the only alternative for a growing community of older aviators. "You're only one medical away from an LSA," went the line. In the heady days of 2005-2006-2007, LSA manufacturers could not keep up with demand. Many built larger factories, hired more qualified workers, and spend millions to create more and better designs. Component manufacturers also kept a steady drumbeat of sought-after instruments, accessories, parts, and add-on features. Those were exciting years for LSA. Then the "Great Recession" hit hard. Industries far beyond aviation were pummeled and government officials spoke of a banking collapse. Sales declined (see nearby chart) and LSA manufacturers scrambled to adjust. Many lost money as they had built too much capacity right about the time demand slacked. As you can see, it was even worse for GA and bizjet makers but it was hard on the LSA industry. So, manufacturers got small, the only defensive posture they could take as these are not deep pocket companies. The recession supposedly ended in 2009, though many will tell you their lives haven't improved much. Unemployment remains high; the U.S. labor force is smaller than it was in 2000 despite 30 million more population. The stock market has recovered, but household income has only risen marginally. Interest rates are held near zero by Federal Reserve policies but loans remain hard to get for small companies. LSA producers had no choice but to adjust. Another factor emerging since 2006 is increased regulatory burden, in the USA and other countries, contributing to more effort needed by manufacturers to demonstrate compliance and meet added rules placed on them. At the same time new technologies such as glass panels, autopilots, and more complex engines have demanded more from producers. Add these requirements to a difficult economy and you have ample explanation why manufacturers are not building airplanes as fast as they once were. The good news: LSA are better airplanes than ever. Plus, new designs continue to emerge and most LSA builders remain in business, albeit with smaller operations. The industry is leaner but still active. However, all these factors translate in 2013 to longer delivery times. Some aircraft builders, like Aerotrek and Phoenix Air, never went overboard to build as many airplanes and both those companies have maintained steady businesses with deliveries stretching into 2014. Producers who made many more airplanes are still building but in more cautious volumes. So, when demand finally began rising as it did early in 2013, orders were written and deposits made, but airplanes were in the supply line and not available to be registered. Hence, 2013 registration numbers are soft. As demand and supply find equilibrium, delivery times will come down and registrations will rise. We may not see the manufacturing pace of 2006 for some time but I remain absolutely convinced that LSA and SP-eligible kits and aircraft are the new entry point in aviation. Plus, remember LSA are a worldwide phenomenon. Prices range from less than $40,000 to more than $200,000 but consider that a new Cessna 172 Skyhawk will sell for nearly $400,000 in 2014. That venerable design will still be a 1950/60s design, where modern LSA have many qualities to support a still-strong interest in flying. Will 2014 be a year of much improved results? I don't know. My crystal ball is no better than yours. Yet I know this. We have many terrific airplanes and more are on the way. We still have, by far, the least costly pilot certificate and no medical is needed. Our airplanes burn much less fuel and most work great on mogas. We've got great engines, panels, and comfortable cockpits. In addition, this: people still want to fly their own airplane. To gain a fresh perspective, what better way than to go aloft and see at this beautiful planet or examine your own neighborhood from above. Flying remains a very special activity and we should celebrate how easily and affordably we can pursue it. Light-Sport Aircraft make this possible for more people and that value will only get stronger.