Oshkosh 2011 is history. By numerous accounts, this was a vast improvement over 2010 when the comments commonly went, “Well, I had some interest (in my airplane) and I hope to sell one or two… maybe.” This year I had easily 30 conversations revealing either outright positive successful results or varyingly robust mood indicators such as, “Looks like aviation has life in it again.” I heard from sellers and customers and rarely had to solicit their opinions. *** A number of aircraft purveyors said they took cash deposits and wrote firm contracts. I estimate about 30 aircraft sales by this method. Companies like Icon, Flight Design, and Terrafugia sold a large number of future delivery positions (more than 50, more than 60, and “several,” respectively). *** Icon neared or crossed the 500-on-order point, partly by “testing elasticity” in the pre-order market by lowering the A5 seaplane deposit to $2,000 from $5,000.
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Farewell to Oshkosh 2011
By all accounts it’s been a good show. I talked with several LSA vendors who, despite the pitiful wrangling in Congress over the debt and general lack of a strong economic bounceback, either wrote some sales or were 90% certain they would. *** U.S. sales leader Flight Design even announced they’d written $11 million worth of business at the show. *** I talked with John Gilmore, the U.S. sales manager for Tom Peghiny’s U.S. Flight Design operation, who briefed me on the new, four-seat, to-be-certified Flight Design C4 the other day (I’ll post more in the next few days). *** John also updated Dan Johnson today on the company’s excellent numbers at the show: *** “We have taken 40 orders for the new C4 plus another 8 orders for Light-Sport Aircraft here at AirVenture 2011,” said John. *** The C4 debuted in Europe in April and a full-scale mockup seen here was prominent in the display all week.
LSA Registration Numbers: The Gang of Six!
Winged buddy Dan Johnson and his colleague Jan Fridrich, head of LAMA Europe, just posted Jan’s exhaustive parsing of the LSA registration data and came up with some shockers. *** Dan calls it the LSA Market Share Report. The first thing he notes is apparent stability in the marketplace: overall registration numbers for the first half of 2011 are about the same as last year, he says, so at least the industry didn’t fall off from that tough year. The pace is on track to better 2009’s 177 total registrations and 2010’s 202. *** In 2010, 48 came from Cessna, which, when subtracted from the total, gives you 154 for the whole year for the rest of the fleet. *** So, looking again at 2011’s first half of 126, subtracting Cessna’s numbers from the total of 126 yields just 72. *** Double that (144) and we could end up with even fewer registrations than 2010, (not counting Cessna) although at just 10 less it’s not an earthshaking falloff unless you want to be a worrywart and consider 2009, which had 177 total…and none from Cessna.
First Half 2011 LSA Market Report
Several readers have asked and we are finally delivering. Jan Fridrich and I present the LSA Market Share Report for the first half of 2011. Figures show a mimicking of 2010 output and that was not a strong year. However, the numbers are not down from 2010 so you could see stability if not growth. *** In the first half of 2011 six companies account for almost 90% of registrations and Cessna alone accounted for precisely half of these. The other five producers: CubCrafters (17% of all first half 2011 deliveries), Czech Aircraft Works (including PiperSport, 13%), Flight Design (7%), Jabiru (4%), and Aerotrek (3%). *** The Over-100 Club now has eight members (chart) up from six at the end of 2010. Our numbers reflect total fleet size, so growth measured this way is inevitable. This method of illustrating market share identifies the strongest producers since 2005.
Aero 2011: LSA Companies Grow… Expanding Into GA
Update 9/24/14 — Added to the models below, South Africa’s The Airplane Factory is also offering their four seat Sling 4. This model is flying but a decision about certifying it has not been made at this time. It is presently available as a kit-built airplane.
Some of the more successful Light-Sport Aircraft producers have their eye on the market for larger aircraft, those able to seat four… or more. While continuing to manufacture their LSA models, three companies showed bigger aircraft or mockups at Aero 2011 and one other company has already done extensive test flying. Look out Cessna, Piper, Diamond, and Cirrus! Those familiar GA brands are about to get new competition. *** The first of this emerging segment was the Evektor Cobra, dating back more than four years. Previously marketed at shows like Oshkosh, Cobra was promoted with alternate powerplants of 200 and 315 horsepower. Joining Cobra in the roughly 2,500-pound gross weight category (approximately the weight of a Cessna 172) are three newcomers: Tecnam’s P2010, Flight Design’s C4, and Pipistrel’s Panthera (photos).
What’s Going On at the Top?
In that rarified air of the executive suite, well… at least in the boss’ office of LSA companies, something seems to be happening. Think about this question for a moment: What do the following LSA have in common? — Skycatcher, SeaRey, Paradise P1, Remos GX, and PiperSport. Give up? OK, it was something of a trick question. The answer: All the companies supplying these LSA have gone through major management changes in 2011. *** The most widely reported departure was that of Jack Pelton, who held the titles of President, CEO, and Chairman at Cessna. Along with him went other notables like Tom Aniello and John Doman; the latter man was VP of piston sales for years; he’s at Flight Design now. So besides Cessna’s very deep cuts to employment (previously media reports have said that more than 50% of workers were laid off), now top management has also changed.
LSA in the News
In this post there’s both good news and bad news. *** First up: blog reader Pete Zaitcev commented on my blog yesterday that the Front Range Airport (FTG) visit, on May 14, by the LSA Tour #3 will coincide with the Rocky Mountain LSA Expo. *** FTG is about 25 miles east of Denver at Watkins, CO. The event is sponsored by the Colorado Pilots Assoc. *** Looks like a fun time and a smart call for the Tour to plan a stop there. Thanks Pete!More good news: Cessna Aircraft delivered 106 aircraft in the first quarter, up from 80 a year ago, and much of the increase comes from deliveries of the 19 Skycatchers. Cessna’s Bob Stangarone has told me the company expects to have delivered 150 by year’s end. *** The unhappy news concerns two LSA crashes. *** A PiperSport crash cost a young CFI his life in Florida.
LSA in the News
In this post there’s both good news and bad news. *** First up: blog reader Pete Zaitcev commented on my blog yesterday that the Front Range Airport (FTG) visit, on May 14, by the LSA Tour #3 will coincide with the Rocky Mountain LSA Expo. *** FTG is about 25 miles east of Denver at Watkins, CO. The event is sponsored by the Colorado Pilots Assoc. *** Looks like a fun time and a smart call for the Tour to plan a stop there. Thanks Pete!More good news: Cessna Aircraft delivered 106 aircraft in the first quarter, up from 80 a year ago, and much of the increase comes from deliveries of the 19 Skycatchers. Cessna’s Bob Stangarone has told me the company expects to have delivered 150 by year’s end. *** The unhappy news concerns two LSA crashes. *** A PiperSport crash cost a young CFI his life in Florida.
“Spy Network” Report: Twin Electric Sailplane
I heard again today from Jim Lee who’s still overseas helping prep the PhoEnix electric motorglider for July’s big, $1.65 million CAFE Green Flight Challenge (GFC) fuel-efficient flight competition in Santa Rosa, CA. *** Jim sent along photos of the electric nosecone with integrated feathering prop/spinner assembly. First test flights of the PhoEnix are planned in a couple weeks. *** BTW, the enhanced streamlining afforded by the much smaller e-motor boots the lovely creature’s performance from L/D 32:1 to 36:1 — a 12.5% increase! That’s great for soaring and also means less power required to sustain flight, the Big Picture for endurance at this stage of electric aviation. *** The GFC PhoEnix entry will be powered by a 44 kW motor and controller developed in house by Phoenix Air. *** Lipo (lithium polymer) batteries, popularized by the RC model industry for their light weight and high storage capacity, will hold the electric “gas”.
Aero 2011 Pre-Show Attention Getters
The major European Airshow, Aero, opened this morning with the usual unveiling of new designs but one aircraft appeared to be the center of attention. Peter Funk had an idea five years back but shelved it for other projects. Now the time is right for his distinctly retro treatment of one of Light-Sport aviation’s sharpest designs, the Fk14 Polaris (Alert readers will identify Polaris as the Cirrus SRS, that GA company’s onetime entry in the LSA sweepstakes.) *** Even experts accustomed to following the latest in new or updated designs were caught off guard by the unorthodox entry (photo). With dual windscreens and race car bodywork, the open cockpit creation charmed many who gained early access to the great exhibit halls of Aero… 11 of them, each the size of a gymnasium. While exhibitors were assembling their displays Fk Lightplanes’ staff grabbed lots of attention with their Fk14 Lemans. *** Constrained by their ongoing contract with Cirrus until the end of the year, Fk Lightplanes sought permission before revealing Lemans and sales will not happen in 2011.
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