REPORTING FROM SUN ‘N FUN — Early estimates from Sun ‘n Fun show total attendance down just slightly (between 5 and 10%) compared to April 2008. A year ago, sub-prime loans were the concern and few knew how difficult the following year would be. Measured by exhibitors, Sun ‘n Fun was also off last year’s all-time record of 522 but only by 4%. The best news included no serious accidents though a SportCruiser ran off the end of the Light Plane Area’s 1,400-foot runway. *** From my view in the LSA Mall positioned right at the main gate, crowds were especially thick on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday while serious buyers arrived early on Tuesday and Wednesday (following a common airshow routine evident the last few years). Airplane shoppers were plentiful though sales reports were uneven. Some, like Flight Design, FPNA, and Evektor, reported sales transacted in the first days of the show.

I’m still contemplating the major success of the Fifth Annual Sebring Expo, which shrugged off the doldrums of 2008. Let’s review: AOPA is the leading pilot organization in the world. Their flagship magazine, Pilot, has by far the largest circulation of any magazine in aviation. Their Expo is long established. *** Yet it appears January’s Sebring outdrew November’s AOPA Expo in San Jose, California. Sebring attendance may have reached 11,500 while Expo reported 9,500. Both are excellent shows for exhibitors as each precisely targets their market. Despite AOPA’s vastly larger size, professional staff, and years of experience, LSA are evidently a compelling enough attraction that Sebring Expo passed AOPA Expo. *** After all the tallying is done, I would not be surprised to hear 20 airplanes sold at the show (worth approximately $2.5 million). AOPA’s Expo may have transacted more revenue for exhibitors as GA prices are higher, but Sebring can be proud.

Agreement is widespread welcoming a new year; 2008 was hard on almost everybody…around the world. The new year may bring continued turbulence, but a feeling that things are starting to change is prevalent, based on my conversations with dozens of LSA professionals in preparation for this year’s Fifth Annual Sebring LSA Expo. From various locations around the country, vehicles and airplanes are headed to Florida — where, by the way, 60-degree temperatures are expected to warm those from the deeply cold north. *** In this SPLOG, I present year-end information which completes the report posted earlier. We hope for a better 2009 and a much-improved 2010; nonetheless, the LSA fleet continued to expand in 2008, with a net increase of 36% (though growth slowed sharply from the 98% pace achieved in 2007 — as the fleet enlarges, it becomes harder to maintain the high percentage growth).

FAA is more than half way through their assessment of the Light-Sport Aircraft industry. According to post-assessment interviews with companies, FAA teams performing these info-gathering visits have generally been satisfied but some changes will likely be made to assure better written records and procedures. *** In preparation for actions it believes will follow the assessments, industry business organization LAMA accelerated its effort to perform LAMA Compliance Audits on more companies. The industry association has been assembling an expert audit team, processes, and extensive checklists to make the effort easy on producers and very cost-efficient. *** LAMA Founder and Chairman Emeritus Larry Burke reports 22 companies are either done, in process, or in negotiation to become LAMA audited. When these are complete, possibly by next Oshkosh, LAMA says this will cover more than 80% of the Light-Sport Aircraft being sold. *** MARKET UPDATE — Following the 12/12/08 SPLOG, I want to clarify industry performance in 2008, a year most will record as “difficult.” In 11 months of 2008 producers registered 392 SLSA airplanes.

Reading the headlines these days shows the USA is flying through turbulence. Light-Sport Aircraft sales are suffering as are GA sales. Growth rates are off, without question, but not uniformly. We have a few companies that improved their positions in this difficult year. *** If you measure by the number of aircraft registered, top producers held on quite well, with Flight Design, Remos, Tecnam, Jabiru, Czech Aircraft Works and Legend, in order, recording the most registrations through eight months of 2008. If you measure by percentage of growth, we observe some interesting developments. But remember, those with the most total registrations are unlikely to also show the highest percentage of growth since their count on January 1, 2008. Smaller or new players logging some sales may have high percentages as they started low. *** Leading the percentage action was Urban Air, whose Lambada fleet has grown 140% (to 12).

Light-Sport Aircraft burst on the aviation scene in April 2005. By the end of that year, less than 50 had been registered with FAA. But in 2006, 2007, and so far in 2008, growth has been brisk…if somewhat erratic. *** It may seem a bit early to be blogging about an “historical perspective” on LSA, but looking at the trend line illustrates something I find fascinating. Sales of recreational-class flying machines closely track the major shows at which they’re exhibited: Sebring, Sun ‘n Fun, and Oshkosh. AOPA’s Expo also has an influence but it is less demonstrable than the other three. *** Also, you can easily see the effect of the 2008 U.S. economic slow-down that has afflicted general aviation as well as light sport aviation. (Even bizjets may begin to show this effect, according to experts, as their backlogs mean present-day strong deliveries were from orders placed in the economic high times of 2005.) *** Consumers of LSA buy them for fun flying as well as regional trips, so when the economy gets shaky, many pull back until they have a clearer view of what’s ahead.